Today, The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) and Stan Wong commented about whether IJH-N, NFLX-Q, CAT-N, DOL-T, TRP-T, BMY-N, CVS-N, PAVE-N, XLI-N, RMS-EPA, META-Q, COST-Q, L-T, MDLZ-Q, NVO-N, MCK-N, GOOG-Q, XTR-T, AIQ-Q, CLS-T, SRU.UN-T, BCE-T, IFC-T, CB-N, CNQ-T, LLY-N, UBER-N, AES-N, HY-N, MELI-Q, QBR.B-T, LULU-Q, AC-T, LNG-A, DAL-N, FLEX-Q, BBW-N, NVDA-Q, CDZ-T, XMY-T, ACWI-Q are stocks to buy or sell.
He and his team are fairly constructive on equities going forward. Today is a less exciting day, but he's still positive at least for the NASDAQ. Now that the uncertainties around US election are behind us, as well as the typically volatile month of October, we set up pretty nicely for the near term. If you look back to 1950, the next 3 months (November, December, and January) tend to be the strongest 3-month segment of the year. The average return in that timeframe is 4.4%.
The US economy had 2.7% real GDP growth in Q3, pretty solid. Driven a lot by durable sales, inflation down to 2.4%, unemployment down to 4.1%. No signs of recession in the US, which people were worried about a year ago. Now we have more dovish central banks around the world with a path of lower interest rates.
US corporate earnings are forecast to be about 13% for 2025, 11% for 2026. Equities are going to move based on corporate earnings.
Some of the sectors that will do well under a Republican administration: financials, industrials, healthcare, and technology.
When you look at healthcare, there are good growth aspects in many parts of the sector. More of a value play. Of course, there will be rhetoric about what names will be hit by potential government action. Remember that there's a difference between candidate Trump and President-elect Trump.
Right at potential support of 200-day MA, which makes it somewhat interesting. 33x forward PE, 40% growth rate, so the valuation looks interesting. Ride-sharing market is highly competitive. DoorDash + LYFT could be a headwind. Long term, he worries about autonomous vehicles and increased government regulation.
He continues to hold. 35x forward PE, 20% growth rate. Earnings and guidance somewhat disappointing. Long term, tremendous growth in obesity-treatment market and diabetes. Short term, watch technicals. Dipped below 200-day MA, but up $13-14 today. If it bounces here, may be attractive for new or additional money.
Generally, energy is a beneficiary of a Trump administration. Value in the energy market, given where oil prices are. Going forward, some of the US names may perform a bit better than Canadian names. If we avoid a recession (his view), then oil prices can move higher. If fiscal stimulus in China can push that economy, would benefit oil prices.
Yield is ~4.6%, no risk to that. Attractive name to own as part of your portfolio.
Clear channel of higher highs and higher lows from mid-2022. Upward trend in the 200-day MA is starting to accelerate. Sees 7-8% earnings growth. Not as exciting as NVDA, but a good financial name to own. IFC is the comparable in Canada.
Likes this segment in P&C. Represents value. Will do well in falling interest rate environment, though some interest rate yields moving higher, which has affected this type of name.
70% in US. Some of top names: NOW, BABA, ORCL, CSCO. A bit different from your normal AI ETFs. Tech names in general are a bit expensive at this stage of the cycle. Trades at almost 4x price to sales, and almost 41x PE. He'd rather be selective in the space. Still, a small portion can make sense.
MER is ~68 bps. Seems to be equal weight, rather than market-cap weighted.
Our PAST TOP PICK with MELI has triggered its stop at $1923. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment gain of 28%, when combined with our previous guidance.