SELL
Shares are falling after reporting today

He sold after their last quarter, based on problems with their US credit side with higher loan losses. They just completed a bank acquisition in recent years. They wonder if they have a handle on their new businesses. An analyst downgraded before the latest results, which are worse than expected. This will be in the penalty box for a couple of 2-3 quarters. Won't buy the dips. He bought TD instead.

BUY

He recently sold BMO to buy this. Last week, TD offered a lot of clarity by warning of potential losses from the their US money-laundering issue.

BUY

It'll have a long turnaround, but it's the cheapest Canadian bank with great Canadian operations.

DON'T BUY

Has been rallying the last 3-4 months based on rate cuts. Has exposure to the Alberta power market which has seen prices under pressure since 2022. Prefers Capital Power.

BUY

Likes their strategy of buying natural gas assets which need a new contract, buying them at a low price. CPX has good performance and pays a high dividend. Supplying data centres is a tailwind.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 07/23, Up 18%)

Benefitted from Covid, but afterwards there was too much inventory. But the PE fell from 30x to 20x, and is exiting the excess and entering a long cycle. Will grow earning 10-15% including by acquisition. Healthcare/pharma/biotech he expects will grow.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 07/23, Up 93%)

Owned this since 2017. One of the best managers in tech. He trimmed shares the last 2 months. In the past 2 years, the PE has jumped from around 15x to 30x, but there are higher growth expectations from their chips. They benefit from AI and and networking spend as they buy software companies. Free cash flow keeps growing and pays a nice dividend.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 07/23, Down 36%)

After buying down, he's still waiting. Needs to sign a deal with their pilots. Travel has been softening across North America, but expects a long recovery in AC. Trades at a 7x PE and cash flow remains okay. 

DON'T BUY

Sold it 18 months ago. Didn't like inventory levels and weak sales growth. They changed the CEO in 2021 and nothing's gone right. Wasn't pleased when they sold directly to consumer and moving away from wholesale--this allowed competitors to take shelf space. The PE is now a reasonable 20x though and it can grow globally. He expects a new CEO which may inspire investors.

DON'T BUY

E-commerce will still grow, but this trades at a high 55x PE. Prefers Docebo, which he owns.

PARTIAL BUY

Like Broadcom, delivers AI communications equipment, which has driven its rally. He's bullish the AI build-out long-term, and Celestica will benefit. You can start building a position in this.

PARTIAL BUY

Many drugs are moving into phase 3 trials, which could be a catalyst, and trades around a cheap 9x PE. They just finished buying Seagen. They have their own weight-loss drug. The dividend is safe, offers 3-5% consistent growth, plus maybe more growth from their drugs. Are cutting costs the rest of the year.

DON'T BUY

Frustrating the last year. In 2023, they were spinning off assets and paying down debt, which was good, but the new CEO has since been building new projects, triggering a sell-off. Meanwhile, they can't sell their renewable assets because US companies are offloading their carbon credits here in Canada. Tons of uncertainty and debt with TWM.

BUY

There were refinery issues (old, unreliable) which weakened the share price, but ultimately the refineries will generate returns. They have a strong production plan to increase output from their Oil Sands and are near their debt target that will lead to buybacks. A cheap stock with upside.

WEAK BUY

In Q4 they will split into separate oil/liquids and natural gas distribution businesses. This will create value in the long term, not short. Prefers ENB which pays a slightly higher dividend, but is similar. TRP pays a nice dividend.