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Same-store-sales declined again in Q2 paired with royalty pool sales and adjusted earnings declining. We want to monitor the declining SSSG trends, and if they can flatten out over the second half of the year, we would then be comfortable stepping in. 
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We think this could be a sarcastic way of saying GOOG is showing complacency in innovation relative to other AI companies. Also, GOOG has been criticized recently for over-hiring, which the company has corrected in recent quarters. It is true that large organizations are not as nimble as start-ups, but at the same time, large, well-established companies also possess a more sustainable business model for investors to compound capital more safely.

There is something the venture capital community refers to as the “Innovators Dilemma”, where large organizations (such as IBM, ORCL, etc.) are usually being disrupted by new technologies as the new solutions do not look attractive (usually new technology has lower margins) and does not fit their main business models which have also been their cash cow for many years. MSFT has been the exception where the company reinvented itself to the new technological trend. Therefore, we think technological disruption is what investors need to monitor over time with companies like GOOG, that being said, we think in the near term, it would be really hard to replace GOOG, but the risk should be kept in mind for long-term shareholders. We would note that GOOG spent $47B on research in the last year, and perhaps the CEO is trying to light a fire under employees to ensure this spending results in future growth. 
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We would caution against reading too much into a couple of days' trading activity. CAE has had potential and a large backlog for some time, but it has not been able to execute well. It is down 21% over a year, and is still not really cheap at 21X earnings. Its last quarter was OK but not overly compelling. We would be OK continuing with an already-established clean up program. 
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What Are Depository Receipts (DRs) ?

To understand how CDRs work, investors must first understand depository receipts (DR). A DR is a negotiable instrument issued by a bank which represents shares in a foreign public company. A DR used to be a physical certificate, but this has shifted electronically over time. DRs trade on a local stock exchange and allow investors to hold interests in international/foreign stocks without needing to trade directly on outside exchanges. DRs are designed to be less expensive and more convenient than directly investing in international markets. They concept is quite common with American Depository Receipts (ADRs) being the largest class, and Global Depository Receipts (GDRs) being a general term for DRs used across the world.

Looking at Canadian Depository Receipts (CDRs) specifically, these allow Canadian investors to access foreign listed publicly traded stocks. A Canadian issuer (typically a bank) will purchase a large quantity of foreign shares. The issuer will then redistribute the shares in smaller units on a Canadian exchange with a built-in hedge to the foreign currency for which the issuer may charge a small fee (less than 0.50%). Essentially all Canadian brokerages offer trading of CDR’s, however, CIBC appears to be the sole issuer. Interested investors can invest in over 50 CDRs on the NEO Exchange with popular tickers ending in ‘.NE.’ 
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He feels good about it. But energy investors feel glum, which is really perplexing. Energy stocks are up YTD about 24%, they're doubling the broader TSX, beating NASDAQ which is up roughly 15%. No reason for the pessimism.

Pervasive concern for about 2 years that the US consumer is faltering, China is weak and so demand must be weak, and oil's going to sell off. The thesis that's bearish on oil is invalid. The best measurements of demand and supply are global inventories. Seasonally, we're at the lowest levels in history of global oil inventories.

Demand is not as strong as some thought coming into the year. Yes, China's weak, but the US oil demand was just revised up. So net-net, demand is fine. US supply is actually negative YTD. Still sees some growth this year and ahead, but a fraction of what it was last year. 

So now we come to OPEC. Beginning in October, scheduled to return barrels to market and people fear that's going to loosen the market. What people are missing is that the return of those barrels is subject to market conditions, plus certain respected OPEC members are at pains to be proactive and precautionary.

Given the selloff, the volatility, uncertainties around health of the global consumer and interest rates, he doesn't see those barrels being removed. He sees a further drop in inventories, and a further tightening market as we head to year's end.

There's a notion that we could see a spike up later this year. He sees the merits of that argument, but doesn't subscribe to it. 

He thinks the fundamentals support WTI at $80, roughly where we are today, and at that level the health of this industry is unbelievable. As is the free cashflow being generated and the share buybacks.

He's fully invested now, after being 32% cash 3-4 months ago. There was a huge geopolitical risk premium at that time, but we're not there today. Sentiment of the financial players is at its weakest in history. Hedge fund interest in energy stocks is at the lowest in 20 years, as they all want to be in tech.

So he can buy into a sector that's deeply out of favour, with lowest global inventory levels in history, demand is exceeding bearish expectations, and he thinks the market is going to further tighten. $80 oil is fundamentally supportive, sector's trading at 15% free cashflow yields, most companies have met final debt targets so they're buying back shares. So there's this underlying bid.

Still constructive, especially after Q2 reporting. US activity and nat gas remain weak. US investors are buying because Canada's oil & gas industry is very, very strong. LNG Canada is a huge catalyst. Sees $185 target, or 93% upside from here.

Every time he's sold, he's regretted it. 35 years of stay-flat inventory, 6x PE, shareholders are now getting 100% free cashflow. 10-11% free cashflow yield for 2025-2026. Fortress balance sheet, extremely competent management team. Yield is 4.2%.

A Conservative government in Ottawa would champion the sector, providing another catalyst to eliminate the discount applied to Canadian oil and gas stocks.

Likes it a lot. Good leverage to bullish thesis on natural gas in Canada. CREW acquisition is a good addition. Very big fan of the Montney, one of the best plays in the world, decades of tier 1 inventory. Yield is ~7%, with prospect of special dividends.

Yield is 8.8%, sustainable for the time being, watching very closely. He also writes calls for a really juicy premium. Sold off because nothing but disappointing news. New drilling required to backfill shortfalls. If you want dividends, this is not the one. Try FRU instead.

Low-risk dividend name that screams out to him. Yield is 7.9%, very safe, extremely sustainable at current pricing. Boring, not a "double overnight" kind of stock. Stock's mispriced at this point.

For his main fund, he's pretty much 100% in Canada with 1 US service name. In his income fund, he's about 60% Canada, 40% US, with a little spin of Colombia to spice things up.

Likes it, but can't own everything. Ongoing M&A concern, as management really likes to do deals which requires debt, creating an overhang on the stock. Q2 was exceptional, higher production and lower capex. Good results in Duvernay with incredibly economic wells. 

13-15% free cashflow yield. Yield is 7%, very sustainable. 

Outspending free cashflow, using debt to finance dividend, not his preference. Gets concerning if oil price drops. Not sustainable for the next year and a half. In 2026, the cadence of capex reduces and the dividend becomes sustainable. Yield is 10.1%.

Look elsewhere. You may sacrifice 2% on the dividend, but you're getting one that's much more sustainable.