Stock price when the opinion was issued
CAE EPS of 24c beat estimates of 19c; revenue of $1.13B beat estimates of $1.08B. Backlog is now a record $18B. We have liked the stock historically, but it has had lots of execution issues. It has high market share, but we always thought it should be more profitable overall, considering its moat and duopolistic industry with really just one other serious global competitor. We would consider 25X earnings fairly priced and would prefer an exit into something more reliable.
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World leader in flight simulation business. Strong company with recent performance in the stock market. Latest quarter has had a bit of a slowdown on sales, but overall the business is strong. Evolution of new pilots that will require new training will be good for business. Expecting high single digit revenue growth. Would recommend holding.
We would caution against reading too much into a couple of days' trading activity. CAE has had potential and a large backlog for some time, but it has not been able to execute well. It is down 21% over a year, and is still not really cheap at 21X earnings. Its last quarter was OK but not overly compelling. We would be OK continuing with an already-established clean up program.
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