Today, Bruce Murray commented about whether LNR-T, BMW-GR, POW-T, NFLX-Q, DIS-N, AC-T, NKE-N, ATZ-T, TOU-T, NGT-T, ARM-Q, ATD-T, FRU-T, MDI-T, QCOM-Q, TMO-N, NTR-T, ALA-T, ET-T, NVDA-Q, AMZN-Q, SHOP-T, MFC-T, SLF-T, QCOM-Q, AVGO-Q, DELL-N, MU-Q, BBD.B-T, ENB-T, CPX-T, NPI-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Last time, he recommended this as a Top Pick. Niche business, but volatile. No debt. Management owns 60% of shares. When cash builds up, they tend to pay $1 extra in dividends. Cash build is approaching that, so if it can't make an acquisition at a good price, you'll probably get that extra dividend in the next 12-19 months.
He sold some when it got above $200, then bought back below $150. It's 2% of his portfolio; when it gets to 2.5%, he brings it back to 2%. If it goes below 2%, he brings it back up. Likes it long term.
The negative is repeated fights with AAPL; if the relationship ends, looking at $20 downside. Sexy side is AI on a chip; if that comes through, probably $70-80 upside.
Amazingly well run. Talented founder is still there; probably won't see anything negative until he leaves. Cigarette consumption continues to drop worldwide, gasoline consumption will probably follow. So you have to rely on snacks and acquisitions for revenue growth.
Still opportunities, no reason to sell.
His models show that it has 10-15 years of growth to becoming a global, dominant brand. Penetrating the US, opening up in Europe. Feedback that it's not as cool as it was. His target price is close to $60, so you could still buy today.
The story is not same-store sales growth, it's number of stores in the future.
He sold some time ago. He struggled with its ability to connect with the younger generation. World leader in so much stuff. Probably a value play, he wouldn't say not to buy.
But he'd prefer to pay more, knowing it has more momentum behind it. He'd wait until metrics start to improve, showing that its lustre had come back.
He'd say take a small swing. It's been on a roll. All the big guys say they can't get enough chips, so demand will be there this quarter. This quarter will be good. When the AI bubble bursts, this will be first to go. 2-3 more years in this stock.