SELL

Recently sold at slight loss, EPS won't have the growth trajectory he thought. Announcement out of left field that they lost a contract and revenue would decline substantially. Reasonably stable business. Over time, will probably be an OK holding. But now market won't have the same confidence in management to execute, stock will be hobbled. He'd look again on further decline.

BUY

Likes recent US acquisitions. Excited about the power business because of AI. A lot more power will be demanded on the grid. Undervalued, time to buy. Yield is 6.5%, with plans to increase 5-6% over next couple of years. 

BUY

Dividend very safe. Likes management. Price of nat gas doesn't really matter, it's more about aggregate demand. Renewables too. Population growth story for Canada and US. Nat gas is reasonably clean burning, so demand will continue.

These stocks should catch a bid if market thinks interest rate volatility will come down.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Very good Q1. Likes management and assets. Long-life assets, refining business, downstream and upstream, balance sheet exciting as it keeps achieving its debt metrics. In Q3, going to 100% capital return to shareholders. 

Caveat: on cusp of seasonal weakness for oil and gas, which can continue through June, July, sometimes into August. If you're a long-term investor, buy and don't look at it until next Dec-Jan, and it could be up if O&G markets are steady. If you're more technical, buy during the upcoming lull.

WAIT
Do legal troubles make this a buy, hold or sell?

Up till now, one of the best operators. This is a blemish for a year. He's concerned that regulators will want to make a point. TD took reserves but it won't be enough for the potential penalty of $2-2.5B. Remember Wells Fargo. 

Big company, makes a lot of money. Dividend not in jeopardy, but may not be increased anytime soon. May be prevented from further acquisitions. Probably no share buybacks. Plus, we could be in a credit cycle with defaults escalating. 

Have to look at valuation. He's waiting. Likes it and its capital levels. If stock pulled back a bit more, he may take a position.

COMMENT
So hard to buy when stocks are cheap.

But that's the opportunity. He shies away from buying expensive stocks, as you're always worried that if the growth stops, you're going  to have a downdraft to the downside. When buying a stock that's reasonably priced, you have a margin of safety (you hope).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 12/24, Up 12%)

He sold a while back. When purchased, he estimated the value at $120-125 or 20% above purchase price. Reported earnings, which were good, but he was concerned about growth going forward. Used it to raise cash.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 12/24, Up 4%)

Lot more upside left.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 12/24, Down 25%)

He got out just below $300. Surprised by management's Q1 commentary, didn't expect capex buildout extension and cost escalation. Free cashflow would not arrive until 2028, and this skewed his valuation. Even though it's fallen, fresh eyes would not make him re-enter, risk/reward just not there.

COMMENT
Even if high conviction, sell if there's a thesis-changing quarter?

Absolutely. It may not be a situation where the whole business is in jeopardy. But again, you have to decide where is your capital going to be treated best? Sometimes best to just sell at your stop loss and move on.

WEAK BUY

Likes the business, amazing execution. CEO switch, and market will test him and future plans. Huge wealth management, big into investment banking. Diverse. Not too expensive. Higher rates gives them margin expansion. As markets go up, management fees also increase. Decent dividend.

If you think markets are going up over 5-10 years, could be reasonably good long-term hold.

DON'T BUY

Wonderful CEO. Very capital intensive, at whims of economy. He believes there's going to be a major downshift in Canadian economy, so its business is going to ebb to downside over next 18-24 months. No value here.

DON'T BUY

Wonderfully run. Management's been amazing at execution and growing the business. Margins are very good. ROE and cashflow can self-finance and grow. Concern has to do with where we are in credit cycle, sub-prime borrowers are more vulnerable.

DON'T BUY

Really good restructuring into higher-margin services. Can't seem to get out of its own way. Growth trajectory and margins are not compelling. Pretty sure dividend is safe. Not sure lots of upside, given current valuation.

BUY

Painful, he owns and is down, but believes in long-term value of the enterprise. CEO's done a reasonably good job. Margins have fallen back as people use the healthcare system more and costs escalate. Overpaid for recent acquisition.

Really great enterprise, reasonably low valuation, nice dividend. With a time horizon of 2-5 years, stock could potentially double. Doesn't deserve the hammering it's had from comparisons to Covid times.