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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

We reiterate HWX as a TOP PICK.  Management reports production remains on target for annualized production of 20,000 boe/d for 2024 and capital has been allocated on several projects for the balance of the year.  It trades at 11x earnings and supports a 27% ROE.  Its dividend is backed by a payout ratio under 65% of cash flow, which still allows quarterly cash flow to grow.  We recommend trailing up the stop from $6.25 to $7.00, looking to achieve $9.00 -- upside potential of 20%.  Yield 5.4%

(Analysts’ price target is $9.32)
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

We reiterate ALK as a TOP PICK.  Travel demand is strong and the company is performing well.  It trades at 23x earnings and under 2x book value.  Cash reserves are growing while debt is retired and shares bought back.  We recommend trailing up the stop (from $33) to $38, looking to achieve $56 -- upside potential of 28%.  Yield 0%

(Analysts’ price target is $56.56)
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

We reiterate this Western Canadian energy producer as a TOP PICK.  Management has the goal to achieve 100,000 boe/d by 2026 and sees a 10% growth in production in 2024.  Hedging activity is assisting against lower natural gas prices currently.  It trades at 8x earnings, 1.3x book and supports an 18% ROE.  We continue to recommend a stop at $12.00, looking to achieve $15.50 --18% potential upside.  Yield 0%.  

(Analysts’ price target is $15.50)
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 11/24, Up 17.8%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

Our PAST TOP PICK with AMGN has achieved its target at $319.  To remain disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $210) to $260.  

COMMENT
Most important news to check in the morning?

He really focuses on earnings that came out overnight, as they often give an indication of what's going on in the economy. Today was a big earnings day for a number of companies, including DIS. 

He looks for a feel of market sentiment. These days, we're in an environment of good news is bad news, and bad news is good news. Investors love bad economic news because it means that maybe the Fed will cut rates earlier. And if we get great economic news, with a strong jobs number, the market goes down because investors feel that a rate cut is a little further in the future (and they'd be correct).

COMMENT
Pay attention to rate cuts and timing?

He pays really no attention to it. Short-term movements, who cares? The global economy is slowing down. Rates will probably get cut somewhat by the end of the year. But if it's not until the first quarter next year, so be it. 

Investors and consumers who are hoping to see the rates we had over the last number of years will be disappointed. Those rates were an anomaly. Even mortgage rates today are where they've historically been in Canada for the last 50 years. In fact, they're relatively low by historical standards.

COMMENT
With NA indexes near record highs, too much optimism?

No. The optimism is really concentrated in the tech and communication sectors. Everybody's forgotten about 90% of the stock market. There are so many great companies today trading at really cheap valuations, with good dividend yields and growth as well. But they're being ignored. Investors will have to get ready for a market that's going to broaden out somewhat.

DON'T BUY
Floating rate bonds -- still good investment in 2024?

Historically, not a great investment over time. Floating rate bonds tend to underperform over the long haul compared to fixed rate bonds. In an environment where we expect rate cuts coming down the pipe, you'd be much better off with a laddered bond portfolio of fixed rate bonds. So, locking in rates for 1-5 years or whatever you're comfortable with.

COMMENT
Would Canada ever enact a limit on acquiring foreign banks? If foreign deposits exceeded 50% of all deposits, wouldn't it become a foreign bank?

The closest we have to that in Canada is TD, which is the 10th largest US bank by assets. Not at 50%, but not crazily far off. He sees no indication of change coming. TD has other issues, so the US regulator may not let it make more acquisitions. Don't be concerned. 

STRONG BUY

Absolutely would buy it here. An end-to-end healthcare company, including recently into homecare. Sizable hit to stock price, selling at 7x earnings. Incredibly well capitalized, lots of free cashflow. Solid dividend. Compelling value.

Some pressure from US regulations on PBM part of the business.

DON'T BUY

Stock's been completely annihilated. It's only in the drugstore chain business, which has been really tough.

BUY

A compelling stock. Phenomenal content. Past the worst of it. Streaming is improving, will be profitable this year. Dropoff from cable is accelerating. ESPN is a big issue. Bulk of earnings coming from theme parks, booming. Whole slew of film releases coming up. Earnings, on surface, were decent. Still generating big cashflow. Breakup value is double what it's trading at.

He forecasts growth in streaming subscribers this year. Everyone is paying astronomical fees to maintain sports rights. DIS is best end-to-end content provider in its space. Will survive and thrive.

BUY

Leader in its space, incredibly well run. Add here. Rare example of a Canadian retailer doing well in the US. Tends to be soft when economy slows. Phenomenal long-term investment. Spectacular acquirers. Incredible value-creator.

HOLD

Stock's done nothing for him except pay a 4% dividend. A couple of more asset sales to go next quarter. He'd love it if they took the cash, paid down debt, and bought back shares. But management keeps making acquisitions, riskier. Trades at 3-4x earnings.

DON'T BUY
Good investment for a RIFF?

Coupons are stripped off from the bond. So an investor does not get a regular income stream. They buy the strip at a discount perhaps at $70, and then it matures in 5 years at $100. Pricing is not well understood by investors, so dealers can make some extra money. Harder to judge what you're paying. Why not buy a regular bond, where the market is more liquid and more transparent.

Do not buy them in a taxable account because you're supposed to impute the interest you'd be receiving every year. So it doesn't work.