Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

Today, Bryn Talkington and Stephen Weiss, Founder, Short Hills Capital Partners commented about whether TSLA-Q, BABA-N, TSLA-Q, XLE-N are stocks to buy or sell.

BUY

A great equal-weighted ETF in oil holding 25 names, more mid-cap than large-cap. She's bullish oil.

COMMENT

Musk has navigated China's political landscape well. She isn't worried that Beijing will say, No more Tesla in China. Rather, Beijing continues to give a discount to domestic EV-makers, which forces Tesla to lower prices and therefore reduce its margins.

COMMENT
Jay Powell stated higher for longer rates

Markets are digesting this. All year, stocks have said no recession, soft landing, rates will be cut next year, while bonds have signalled recession. Stocks are right; we're seeing the un-inversion of the bond market.

COMMENT

What's next is earnings season, and expectations are higher over last year. There's a chance that earnings will fall short of expectations. He's been cautious in recent weeks and has been trimming exposure. He's amazed that some on Wall St. expect a soft landing and the the Fed will cut rates. They won't, and sees a recession coming, because inflation isn't under control: oil costs more, UPS and the UAW are on strike and the IRA hasn't deployed capital yet. Car leasing has soared 20-40%. Consumers will be making hard choices. The market will go lower, not higher.

SELL
Shares are up after a report of China easing foreign investment of Chinese companies

He just sold it. He thinks shares are popping today, because BABA will spin off one of their companies, not so much this report. He bought it at 8x earnings. He sold to manage his portfolio and feels that China's Premier is off the rails, not making good decisions like blockading Taiwan.

TRADE

He added more puts today. Thinks shares will go lower.

COMMENT

How do you stay invested in this period of digestion where there's a lot of risk. There remains inflation pressure on consumers that will impact spending. Stick with companies that have healthy free cash float, moats, competitive advantage and most importantly, valuation. We're in the middle of a correction that is testing moving averages. What can earnings and valuations do? The Fed will be higher for longer.

BUY

Likes it. BABA is relatively cheap at 10x, a discount to its historic average and a 40% discount to China's tech sector, despite the political risks. They hold 50% of market share and touches 70% of the Chinese population. 

BUY

It sat out the rally this year, but continues to execute. Has owned this a long time.

COMMENT

Consumer staples have badly lagged this year, but are clearly a defensive play. Food and energy inflation have shrunk consumer discretionary spending. Not surprised to see household retailers trade. The challenge for staples in recent years is their lean margins, but she expects a shift given disinflation.

COMMENT

Investors should not expect lower interest rates going forward - current rates are historically average. 
Believes market is oversold at current prices - expecting rally before year end.
Investors have exited the choppy period of the year.
Select few tech names inflating the markets (NVIDIA, Alphabet etc.)
US Federal Reserve interest rate policy appears to be successfully avoiding a recession.



TOP PICK

Excellent business with very strong margins.
Dominant in search engine technology.
A.I., product recovering quickly.
Current share price a good place to buy.
Expecting double digit growth.
Free cash flow very high - lots reinvested into R&D.

TOP PICK

US Infrastructure Spending Bill will be good for the company.
Rumors of divestitures of smaller business units.
Excellent share price for long term investors. 
Expecting consistent growth.

TOP PICK

Current share price trading at discount to historical valuation.
Excellent brand with established technology.
Supports large amount of global payments.
Predictable business with growing cash flows.
25x P/E justified. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 09/22, Down 22%)

Disappointing recommendation.
Healthcare staffing demand has fallen since Covid-19.
Should be trading at a higher multiple.
Healthcare is still growing. 
1M nursing professionals expected to leave industry - good for business.
Good long term hold for investors.