Today, Bryn Talkington and Stephen Weiss, Founder, Short Hills Capital Partners commented about whether TSLA-Q, BABA-N, TSLA-Q, XLE-N are stocks to buy or sell.
What's next is earnings season, and expectations are higher over last year. There's a chance that earnings will fall short of expectations. He's been cautious in recent weeks and has been trimming exposure. He's amazed that some on Wall St. expect a soft landing and the the Fed will cut rates. They won't, and sees a recession coming, because inflation isn't under control: oil costs more, UPS and the UAW are on strike and the IRA hasn't deployed capital yet. Car leasing has soared 20-40%. Consumers will be making hard choices. The market will go lower, not higher.
He just sold it. He thinks shares are popping today, because BABA will spin off one of their companies, not so much this report. He bought it at 8x earnings. He sold to manage his portfolio and feels that China's Premier is off the rails, not making good decisions like blockading Taiwan.
How do you stay invested in this period of digestion where there's a lot of risk. There remains inflation pressure on consumers that will impact spending. Stick with companies that have healthy free cash float, moats, competitive advantage and most importantly, valuation. We're in the middle of a correction that is testing moving averages. What can earnings and valuations do? The Fed will be higher for longer.
Consumer staples have badly lagged this year, but are clearly a defensive play. Food and energy inflation have shrunk consumer discretionary spending. Not surprised to see household retailers trade. The challenge for staples in recent years is their lean margins, but she expects a shift given disinflation.
Investors should not expect lower interest rates going forward - current rates are historically average.
Believes market is oversold at current prices - expecting rally before year end.
Investors have exited the choppy period of the year.
Select few tech names inflating the markets (NVIDIA, Alphabet etc.)
US Federal Reserve interest rate policy appears to be successfully avoiding a recession.
A great equal-weighted ETF in oil holding 25 names, more mid-cap than large-cap. She's bullish oil.