Today, Brendan Caldwell and Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA commented about whether T-T, TD.PR.T-T, SVAL-N, AQN-T, IFP-T, T-T, ATZ-T, TECK.B-T, TD.PR.T-T, NTR-T, BI.H-X, WCP-T, SJ-T, AI-N, CARR-N, BEI.UN-T, GM-N, EA-Q, LKQ-Q, COST-Q, VMC-N, ESAB-N, ENTG-Q are stocks to buy or sell.
Technical indicators pointing towards a cautious strategy in the markets.
Expecting a correction in the markets.
An ~11% fall in the markets not out of the question.
Given recent interest rate hikes - economic hard landing almost guaranteed.
Wait to invest once the markets have corrected.
Sentiment amongst investors pointing towards negative outlook.
Canada does not have nearly the same tech landscape that the US does, and SHOP has been one of Canada's largest tech successes. This provides support at a high level for the company to continue to succeed. Understanding its technology, it is more than just a flash in the pan and has a long tail to it. Ecommerce and Shopify's presence have a 'lindy effect' and this is essentially its staying power. Digital spending is here to stay, and brands need PoS, logistics, inventory management and other systems to manage online sails.
We like Shopify's strong presence across North America, its resiliency across business cycles, and vision from the management team. It is at a high valuation relative to most other companies, but we feel this is justified given its growing market share and technology supporting the company.
There are risks from certain competitors (AMZN, LSPD), but most of these risks fade away over time as investors and businesses realize the impressive technology stack that SHOP has in comparison. We believe it has created a competitive advantage for itself, and there are certain businesses that AMZN has avoided due to SHOP's significant presence in those businesses.
We continue to like the name as part of a Canadian tech success story.
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WEX offers fleet payments/fuel solutions as well as B2B payment services. It looks cheap at 13X forward earnings and typically grows in the double-digit range on the top and bottom lines. Fundamentally it is a strong company with good and consistent margins. Debt is largely covered by cash and investments. We don't see a whole lot to pick on here.
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HSY is a mature consumer staple name and is now trading at 23x times' Forward P/E (historical averages range from 19x to 27x). HSY’s volume growth is largely mature, however, the company has decent pricing power, which helped drive revenue growth by double-digits in the last two years. The balance sheet is okay, with net debt of $4.5B and the net debt/EBITDA is now at 1.7x. Going forward revenue growth would be around 5% on average over the next few years. HSY also has consistently raised dividends and done share buybacks which we like.
Overall, stable, resilient businesses but not cheap, we think it is ok but have a hard time getting excited about a sub-5% grower (in a normal environment) trading at 23X forward earnings.
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Canadian banks under-performing the past year due to interest rate hikes.
Concerns of a recession/hard landing also slowing growth.
Loan losses not materializing in banks.
Good time to buy shares.
2nd best bank behind RBC.