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The market doesn't like banks right now. If the economy slows down, what will that do to loan losses? Earnings start tomorrow, might be all right as the economy hasn't rolled over yet. He'd be a bit concerned going forward. He's underweight banks right now. Lower end of valuation range, decent dividends, but earnings growth will be challenged in the short term. His order would be TD, CM, and then BMO.
He'd take BCE in a heartbeat from a safety aspect. Better yield, cheaper valuation, growth is tied to the economy. QSR has done a good job with its divisions, though Tim's has been a challenge. Profits are now being squeezed pretty dramatically. He's nervous on consumer stocks.
Makes sense. MEG is a pure oil play with long-life reserves, and BIR is more levered to natural gas. You're adding a new level of risk to switch back and forth. The risk is you do it at the wrong time and end up losing. The volatility is beautiful on the upside, but kills you on the downside. Instead, buy ARX with decent nat gas, and a light oil play since they bought Seven Generations, and production growth. Then you don't have to make the decisions about moving back and forth.
Makes sense. MEG is a pure oil play with long-life reserves, and BIR is more levered to natural gas. You're adding a new level of risk to switch back and forth. The risk is you do it at the wrong time and end up losing. The volatility is beautiful on the upside, but kills you on the downside. Instead, buy ARX with decent nat gas, and a light oil play since they bought Seven Generations, and production growth. Then you don't have to make the decisions about moving back and forth.
None of these businesses are under pressure on the dividends, but it's the valuations. Everybody wants to be in renewables over fossil fuels, and he gets this over the long term. The problem is when renewables were trading at 15-18x operating cashflow, and then suddenly the oil stocks are trading at 3-4x operating cashflow, it's hard to do that shift. Some money has been moving out of renewables and into conventional oil and gas production, strictly on a valuation basis. When the valuation multiples come down, names like RNW, BLX, NPI will come down to 10-11x range, which is cheaper than they were though more expensive than traditional fossil fuels. BEP.UN is probably the most expensive of the group. He likes them for growth and ESG reasons, but hasn't made the switch. He's getting closer to it. Once he did make the switch, BLX and NPI would be the first names on his list.
He's buying. Hard to resist a stock that's trading at 3-3.5x operating cashflow when they're starting to pay down debt, return cash to shareholders, and unwind mistakes of the past decade. Risk is oil prices collapsing, but he's not really worried about that despite a slowdown, as there are still lots of supply issues.
It's scary when an equity guy comes on with a bond ETF idea. He's more comfortable with the bond market as a safer bet this year. Interest rate impact will feel its way into the economy at some point this year. Rates will stay higher for longer, but the curve inverts a bit more, and a rally at the longer end of the curve will benefit the bond market. In a weaker environment, that will help. Very safe, very liquid. Great hedge to your portfolio.
