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Markets. US retail sales number came in down 1.1%. Suggests consumers are starting to feel the pressure of higher inflation, perhaps dipping into savings to fund purchases. US consumer has been resilient the last couple of years, and the consumer accounts for 2/3 of GDP growth.

Outlook for 2023. Hard to say. Last year, all the global indices posted negative returns, with the TSX doing better than most, going down just under 6% because of the energy component. In prior years when there was negative GDP growth, the stock market was actually down in the year prior to the recession, and then up in the year of the negative growth. So the markets are forward looking. The fact that markets were down last year, especially in the US and in tech stocks, reflects concern of higher interest rates. When the economy turns negative for two consecutive quarters, and everyone is anticipating some sort of recession this year, the Fed pauses and starts cutting, so this is actually positive for the markets. It's going to be very bumpy until we get better profit clarity for companies, as that's what's going to drive what happens for the balance of the year. Last year was multiple contraction. October lows will really be tested if companies see demand softening and lower earnings guidance, and so we would have negative earnings growth.

PE multiple, Canada vs. US. From last year to right now, US earnings have been revised down only about 2%, not very much. But the PE multiple went from over 22x to 15-16x, which is what led to the decline in markets, and centred on the really high multiple stocks. In Canada, earnings got revised up because of energy, and so the PE in Canada is much more attractive because of the makeup of the domestic indices.

Plagued by fixed-price contracts. Big cost overruns. Not booking these types of contracts going forward, but they have to work through them. She owns WSP instead.

A purely consulting and design company, no construction risk. Has made strategic acquisitions to increase presence in lucrative growth areas such as environmental and infrastructure, especially in the US. Very global, Canada is less than 20% of earnings. Grows organically and by acquisition. Balance sheet still quite strong.

Still likes. Lots of areas with good growth potential. Invests mainly in hard assets. Global. Customers are large funds. Lots of capital to deploy. During volatility, can buy assets opportunistically and sell at a profit. Core holding, she'd buy here.

US bank recommendation. She holds JPM. Largest bank, fortress balance sheet, CEO well respected. Earnings better than expected. Consumer and commercial loan growth. Their base case is a mild recession, so they built reserves. Return on tangible equity is 18%. 11.5x PE, attractive dividend.

Growth outlook muted, parent company TA has decided to keep many of the projects themselves. Attractive yield around 7%. Cashflow slowing, so goal is to maintain dividend. For income stocks, you like to see dividend growth annually, and RNW can't offer that right now.

Half defense, half commercial aerospace. A portfolio position of 5% is higher than her usual weighting of 3%, so trim a bit. Great company, high quality, strong balance sheet. Likes the areas it's in. The world is a dangerous place. Air travel and plane orders ramping up. Core position.

Huge hit last quarter. Cut dividend, so payout ratio 75% of 2023 earnings (good that asset base excludes assets being sold). Stopped DRIP, not issuing equity for 2 years, asset sales. Yield still around 6%. Trading at 12x, very cheap. 70% of operations are regulated, steady income. Sticking with it for now. Now it's all about execution. If Kentucky acquisition fails, could be positive for the stock.

Cyclical, volatile. She doesn't invest in the sector. Air traffic has bounced back. Fuel cost headwinds are less. But if you think we're going into a major slowdown, don't want to own airlines.

(A Top Pick Jan 18/22, Down 5%) Strong balance sheet can withstand the economic cycle. Building reserves in anticipation of its call for a mild recession. Highly regulated after financial crisis. Diversified, and many areas have held up. Analysts expect earnings to grow. Admittedly, fraudulent Frank acquisition was a misstep.

(A Top Pick Jan 18/22, Down 21%) Held up well most of last year, then caved. Higher interest rates headwind to valuation. Subscription model. LinkedIn has worked out well. Cloud business growing. Operating margin over 40%, very strong balance sheet. Could still grow earnings, though more slowly, despite recession. Core holding.

(A Top Pick Jan 18/22, Down 20%) Recommendation was poor timing. Bought it for adoption of EVs. Headwinds in auto industry. Industrial businesses are starting to slow.

She owns CNR. Not averse to CP. Even if downturn, earnings should hold up better because they're oligopolies. With global trade, a necessary form of transportation. Kansas City Southern acquisition will be a positive. Valuations are higher than US peers. Wait for a pullback.