COMMENT
Semiconductors. You want to buy analog chips that favour low-grade, industrial applications. The massive flow of funds into semis is now unwinding significantly. Primary trade on semis is a long-term short. A buy could be 18 months away at least. His preferred stock is ADI.
WAIT
Good CEO, very good company. Passive fund flows ran the sector up. Valuation is being reevaluated. Wait until you see a floor during a recession. When you buy, buy for the long term.
COMMENT
Missed the mobile computing cycle. Trying to reinvent itself. Good balance sheet, and they have plans, but they failed to execute. Needs a catalyst. Safe dividend for income, bond proxy, but look for lower levels. Yield of 5.5%.
DON'T BUY
Large natural gas resources. He'd look for companies with more supply/demand restrictions. Bit small for him, going through an integration process. Good story, but doesn't tick boxes for him. He owns EQNR instead.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 27/21, Down 26%) Dividend growth and buyback story. Coming recession will give companies opportunities to cut workers through automation. Core holding for him. If it went down by 1/3, he'd buy more. Yield is 1.7%.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 27/21, Down 15%) Core holding. Performed better than the indexes. Downturn due to underlying industrial demand. Capex leads to higher growth, and this takes time. When it's on sale, that's when you want to buy.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 27/21, Down 11%) August numbers improved, debt down. Higher beta, as it's in EM, so one he tends to trade. Attractively priced at these levels. A bet on rising incomes, tourism, Southeast Asia robust growth profile. Very well run.
WATCH
Very large decline. Think about it in the context of the year 2000. The ones that survived had positive operating leverage, growth, and great business models. Those are the ones you want to own for years. Too early to decide. Stay away, but watch it.
WAIT
Small regional bank, reasonably well operated. Wait to see what happens to the loan book fallout.
COMMENT
European banks. Take a hard look at the Ukraine conflict and decide whether it will be localized, so that after the recession, the rest of Europe will get back to business. If so, as the currency falls, could be an opportunity to buy at record low levels and hold as they recover. If you're not looking through that lens, you probably shouldn't be there. He's not adding any more banks right now until he sees the status of non-performing loans after the recession.
WAIT
A fan. Safe and steady. Likes the verticalization. Big selloff from expensive valuation. Recent sizeable acquisition may take a while to digest, though management has a good track record. Stock may trade down further. He'd need to see progress on debt repayment.
DON'T BUY
We need potash, and demand will spike. Reticent to chase a small name like this. Look to a large cap. He likes NTR, which is reasonably priced, all things considered.
BUY
We need potash, and demand will spike. He likes a large cap such as this one, which is reasonably priced, all things considered.
COMMENT
Canadian vs. US banks. In Canada, the large banks own a mortgage asset, and they underwrite, administer, and collect on it. So you have a large iceberg underlying the profit cycle of Canadian banks. Quite resilient. For US banks, mortgages originate at the community banks and then move up the channel and can be sold. Income from these is largely transactional. If transactions slow, as in a rising interest rate environment, this would be a revenue headwind, and you'll see a spike in non-performing loans. US banks will trade down, probably more than Canadian ones. But when we bottom out, there will be a significant opportunity. Wouldn't touch a US bank now. Not a huge fan of banks right now, but if he had to choose, he'd buy a Canadian one.
WAIT
For US banks, mortgages originate at the community banks and then move up the channel and can be sold. BAC participates in this. Income from these is largely transactional. If transactions slow, as in a rising interest rate environment, this would be a revenue headwind, and you'll see a spike in non-performing loans. US banks will trade down. But when we bottom out, there will be a significant opportunity. Wouldn't touch a US bank now.