COMMENT
Believes there is an outside chance of a 100 basis point interest rate increase this week. Doesn't think that the US Federal Reserve wants to increase rates too much. Expecting a 50 or 75 basis point raise.
COMMENT
Higher interest rates seem to be cooling market. Not seeing any material down tick in revenues from corporations. Waiting to see if there is any pain on Mainstreet from job losses.
COMMENT
Thinks that the Bank of Canada will match any interest rate increases from US Federal Reserve. Expectation is for US Fed rate to be at ~3-3.25% by the end of the year. Market is already pricing interest rate cooling into 2023. Best time to lock in GIC rates will be in the next quarter.
HOLD
Broad basket of US regional & National banks (5% weighting to each name). Question is how much exposure investors want to banks. Low dividend rate, not as high as Canadian banks. Not a good investment for someone in their 80's.
BUY
A great strategy for low volatility investors. Any price below ~$12 is a good buying opportunity. High dividend yield, with low risk.
BUY
A benchmark for growth risk in the economy. Vast majority of market correction is priced into this fund (exception of Tesla). Still risk in this fund even though Cathie Wood does excellent job. Current price is presenting buying opportunity.
COMMENT
ZCH (ESG China exposure) vs ASCH (mainland China business) commentary. Would prefer ASCH on the long term. Ok with either investment. Take both for balanced portfolio.
DON'T BUY
Doesn't have a bullish view on Crypto as an asset. Inverse trading strategy may be an option for investors. Will not invest in Bitcoin regardless. Impossible to time Bitcoin investment (lots of downside potential).
COMMENT
Educational Segment. 106 out of 500+ companies have reported for Q2. Foretasted earnings are mixed. 60% of companies are beating expectations.
COMMENT
Educational Segment. Energy earnings creating most of positive gains (up over 244% this year). Covid-19 pandemic aid reducing economic support in the economy. S & P 500 down even though earnings are rising. Expecting job losses as S & P 500 has fallen.
COMMENT
Educational Segment. Historically 200,000 - 300,000 people get laid off every week. 400,000 - 500,000 layoffs per week would suggest recession. Nothing indicating this is the case yet. Large amount of room for layoffs in the economy.
COMMENT
Recession fears fully baked in? We've seen a multiple contraction from 24x to 16x, but we haven't seen earnings come down a lot. This week will be very powerful for US earnings, especially big tech and industrials. Earnings are backward looking, so people will be looking at forward guidance. If people feel we're in a slowdown, that will affect how they think about earnings for the next couple of quarters. So we could see another leg down, but that's when you want to buy, as a lot of the information will be already in the market. People are comfortable with interest rates going higher, but they don't know where earnings are going. That's what's captivating the market until we get numbers from companies that are big market drivers.
COMMENT
Earnings reports so far. If you look at the consensus number from analysts, things are higher, but a lot of that is just energy. If you take energy out, it's gone down. The banking industry is increasing reserves, which tells you that they're anticipating increased problems with loans. Companies may be having a more difficult time. People are wary of advertising revenues. Travel continues to do well, but it's coming off a very low base, and that's hard to see as sustainable over the next little while. Numbers this week will give better direction on US corporate earnings and guidance, and a broad spectrum of the US economy. Need to see clarity there, and then you can make a decision as to whether the market's making a bottom or not.
WATCH
Trades about 15x earnings, 3.4% dividend yield. Not expensive. Fell on last quarter, due to supply chain issues and large deals slowing down. Investors were wary, as competitors didn't have these issues. Look at guidance when numbers are released in August.
PARTIAL SELL
Paying down debt, buying back shares, increasing dividend. Trying to be less into fossil fuels, more into renewables. Two risks: overspend on renewables, no clear vision on cost of capital. Oil is not sustainable at these high levels. In better shape than pre-Covid, lots of free cashflow. Good for now, but then think about Canadian oil companies that don't have the currency risk.