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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We again reiterate HIU, an Inverse S&P500 ETF priced in Canadian dollars, as a TOP PICK. The 0.75% increase in the US FED rate (the most since 1994), slowing housing starts, softer jobs numbers and the first increase in Swiss interest rates in 50 years all point to the risk of stagflation -- a slowing economy and tightening fiscal policy. It is time to add to a defensive position. We like the fact this is in Canadian dollars, which will provide further safety for Canadian investors as the greenback strengthens to other currencies. We now recommend trailing up the stop (from $13) to $14. Yield 0%
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly With overriding concerns growing about the state of markets, we again reiterate this defensive global utility ETF priced in Canadian dollars as a TOP PICK. Utilities are better able to manage inflationary pressures and rising interest rates than most companies as these costs are able to be passed directly along to the consumer. We like the global diversification and its yield. We recommend sliding the stop loss down to $17.75 to account for current market volatility. Yield 7.4%
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We again reiterate ZTL, a low MER ETF holding long term US government bonds priced in Canadian dollars, as a defensive buy during this period of global uncertainty. Interest rates are on the rise and the ETF has taken its lumps, but we view it as a safe haven for the foreseeable future. We think of it as insurance -- as such we will not set a stop-loss nor upper price objective. It pays a yield to park your cash and we like that it is in Canadian funds -- as we expect weakness in the Canadian dollar during any sizable market pullback. Yield 3.16%
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 26/22, Down 12%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with SNY has triggered its stop at $49. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment loss of 5.3%, when combined with previous buy recommendations.
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 02/22, Down 13.7%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with F has triggered its stop at $12. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This will result in a net investment loss of 15%, when combined with the previous buy recommendation.
COMMENT
Recession shopping list. Time to prepare for a recession is not when one is in full swing. Just like the time to buy insurance is not when your house is already on fire. He set plans in motion earlier this year in anticipation of a slowdown in the economy. It's looking increasingly likely a recession is in the making, and you want to be positioned for the environment 12 months from now. Your portfolio should be more defensive, have more cash, more gold and utilities and staples, light on high beta and financials and industrials and some cyclicals. Do your research on things you want to own for the next up cycle. Bull markets follow bears, as surely as night follows day.
COMMENT
What if you haven't raised cash by now? Sell now, or ride it out? A recessionary bear market lasts, on average, 16 months. S&P 500 is down 1/3 off prior highs. Shortest recessionary bear market was 2 years ago, which started in February and ended in March. You don't want to be making binary decisions of all in or all out. Look at your portfolio, stock by stock, and sector by sector. How resilient is it? Strong balance sheet? A need or a want? This one will be driven by consumers tightening their belts. Groceries, gas are needs. $6 foamy latte could become more of a want when things get a bit darker.
DON'T BUY
Needs vs. wants. Tim's is the vulnerability at 40% of the operating profit, and 25% below pre-Covid. Many people are not back in the office. Popeye's has plateaued. Challenging macro backdrop.
DON'T BUY
Quick service food industry. Not timely. Brands like WEN, YUM, MCD, and QSR. Shares are all down 20-25% YTD. Avoid.
BUY
Very timely. Unique is all production is in Colombia. Growth story, free cashflow machine. New leadership. Buying back shares, production growth of 17%. No debt, 4x earnings. Best in class. Yield around 4%.
COMMENT
Impact of recession on oil demand, its price, and related stocks? The elephant in the room with any commodity. If you knew what the price was going to be, you'd know how to play the sector. Recession will throttle back demand. Wild card is what will happen with supply. A lot of supply is not getting online because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
DON'T BUY
CWB vs. LB He'd buy neither right now. Financials are not necessarily what you want going into a recession. Credit losses can sting. Regional banks are not as well diversified as the bigger banks. No wealth management. CWB is more exposed to commercial and industrial loans, so losses can be greater. CWB edges out LB by a hair.
DON'T BUY
LB vs. CWB He'd buy neither right now. Financials are not necessarily what you want going into a recession. Credit losses can sting. Regional banks are not as well diversified as the bigger banks. No wealth management. CWB is more exposed to commercial and industrial loans, so losses can be greater. CWB edges out LB by a hair.
HOLD
Higher beta. More sensitive to the market than H, FTS, or one of the banks. On big down days, the spicy stocks suffer. One of the better quality nat gas producers. If bullish on nat gas, and he is, you can comfortably own it.
HOLD
Go-to name when global investors want more exposure to oil. Strong balance sheet. High quality. 6x earnings, huge cashflow this year. Could correct back to mid-low $60s, a good entry point. Yield is 4%.