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Today, Eric Nuttall commented about whether IMO-T, MEG-T, WCP-T, TOG-T, TOU-T, CPG-T, BTE-T, ARX-T, CNQ-T, SU-T, KEL-T, VET-T, CVE-T, TVE-T, BIR-T, NVA-T are stocks to buy or sell.

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COMMENT

We can finally look towards a post-covid world. The market is looking through the lockdown and induced demand loss. The structural loss of US shale and capital investment moving to renewables also points to a positive outlook on crude oil. We see a tightening of supply. He is still confident we will see $50 oil early next year and $60 later that year. Energy companies have enormous free cashflow right now.

COMMENT

They are running at a higher than average leveraged position. Their next maturity is 2023 so there is running room. The outlook for condensate is very positive. 30% free cash flow at $50 oil, and 53% free cashflow yield at $60.

COMMENT

Future of oil. The global population in 2050 will be at 2B people. Mass EV adoption is very challenging due to economics. Just from a base metal perspective, it would consume 85% of lithium and 105% of cobalt reserves in the world. Hydrogen would displace 4% of oil demands in 2050. The notion of peak demand is a fallacy but the reality is that this will lead to peak supply which will be very real.

HOLD

A go to natural gas name. 19x free cashflow yield right now. Balance sheet and debt is fine. It has relevant obstacles and market cap is a challenge, but it is a hold. It depends on how cold the winter is. If it is a warm winter, get out.

WATCH

At $45 oil, the target price would be $1.50. At current oil prices, it is trading at a 4% free cashflow yield. He believes this company will not be around for much longer. The valuation is very compelling. However, either they need to get bigger or to get out and be scaled up by someone else.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He was not overly enthused by the Husky take over. He has warmed up to the outlook of the stock in a better oil price environment. At $50 oil, they do not compete as well as CNQ or SU. He has started to dip his toe into CVE. At $50 oil, they would be trading at a 24% free cashflow yield, which is compelling for a large cap stock.

SELL

Their balance sheet needs to be fixed, assets are scattered all over the world so operational focus is difficult. Their valuation is not compelling compared to other names. He has been a sell for years.

DON'T BUY

Not a holding now. They paid off all their debt by selling some assets. They are at a net cash position. In the short term there is no reason to own the stock due to lack of catalyst.

COMMENT

CNQ would be better for dividend sustainability. They have less maintenance requirements on their properties, a better run company. There is better inside ownership. He owns both. At $60 oil, CNQ will have 18% free cashflow yield. Suncor has less leverage due to refining exposure.

COMMENT

The momentum today will off-set tax-loss selling. Looking through the very short term, the dynamics of the sector are tighter. They had a disappointing 2021 forecast with more gas allocations. If you are bullish on natural gas, you could be a buyer, but he does not find it too compelling.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 19/19, Down 64%) It offers meaningful beta for increasing oil price. He thinks it will lag other names, especially since more and more investors favour MEG. He does not hold it.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 19/19, Down 60%) It offers meaningful cashflow. They are treading water but have meaningful leverage to an increasing oil price. At $50, it will trade at 24% free cashflow yield, at $60. 60%. It could potentially amalgamate with other companies in the area.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 19/19, Up 21%) He has reduced his position from 10% - 2% due to implosion of the natural gas pricing from the warm weather. They can use their strong balance sheet and Topaz, as an aggregator. He expects them to be aggressive as a consolidator.

TOP PICK

A huge laggard this year. It is trailing other names at 20-30%. They have not yet reinstated dividends. They should reinstate it early next year. At current levels, the stock trades at 14% free cashflow yield. At $50-$60 oil, it trades at 30%-60% free cashflow yield for dividends and buy-backs. (Analysts’ price target is $2.46)

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