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COMMENT
Is there too much euphoria over the potential vaccines? Market was already in a transition away from momentum stocks. Starting to move into value. The Pfizer announcement created a big jump in stocks that were already starting to move. Stocks aren't necessarily too much ahead of themselves, but we're going to have a rough patch or two before it's all done.
COMMENT
Longer term, sobering thoughts on US debt to GDP? The long downtrend of US GDP dropped in 2008 to less than $3 of debt to $1 of GDP for the first time, and we had the worst recession since the Great Depression. It held tight at the 3.5:1 ratio until we got to 2020. Now we're back in the same condition as 2008, and along came Covid. GDP plunged as indebtedness went up. Can't tell if it's a Covid effect or something else. The economy won't bounce back in 2021 the way people are expecting. Covid isn't over yet, despite the vaccines.
HOLD
Fell to book value, but jumped on Pfizer announcement. Intrinsic value is 60% higher than current value. Fairly indifferent balance sheet. If it can break above $31, could easily go as high as $42. No yield.
Energy
COMMENT
Time to take profits from gold and silver? No. Outlook for inflation is perking up. Historically, upwards pressure on interest rates plus upwards pressure on commodity prices. Stay the course in the golds, and add some of the other commodities including copper. Not the time to bail, just because they're in a temporary hiatus.
