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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 03/19, Up 6%) A play on construction whose seasonality is end-October to February. This is trending higher, supported by major moving averages. He's buying into what goes into building new homes, like lumber which he's done very well with. Even 12 months ago, ITB outperformed, and it has since gone straight up since then. It's exhausted its run, so he's looking for something with juice.
E.T.F.'s
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 03/19, Up 6%) Yields 2.35%, better than fixed income products. This is the ideal hold to generate income. It enjoys higher highs and higher lows. Seasonal tailwinds through the end of the year. Lately it has underperformed the market, so he's a little concerned. He got out of this and into CUD-T instead. It holds the same basket but he didn't want CAD exposure (though CUD spiked today).
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COMMENT
Stop loss strategy and indicators to use? He has a three-pronged approach to keep a stock: 1) stock is in seasonality; 2) technicals are good; and 3) fundamentals act as a tailwind. If even one prong fails, he will reduce or sell the position. He doesn't use anything strict for a stop loss, but will use breakdowns of moving averages; he'll sell a stock when it returns to its previous level of resistance/support. He won't sell on a break, because the stock could break down a point points further--don't sell into the panic. But take advantage of the rebound.
DON'T BUY
Volume matter in tech analysis? Volume doesn't matter anymore in technical analysis. Nothing negative about WMT's chart which enjoys higher highs and higher lows. Moving averages point higher. Aug.24-Nov. 14 is seasonality, a defensive time. Maybe don't own it now. This will underperform the wider market.
department stores
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Wait for a 5% drop? Momentum is rolling over. This is very overbought, but you must be exposed to Microsoft. Nothing wrong with their fundamentals. June 14-Nov. 8 is their seasonality. Software stocks are the new defensive stocks, because their subscriptions are a steady revenue. $132.50 is the 200-day moving average, and this is the best time to enter.
computer software
processing
COMMENT
He can't forecast price targets for any oil stock, given so many factors like e-cars. Play oil seasonally, not long term. Dec. 14-April 30 is seasonality. This is setting up well. SLB is a loser this year and will be busy during tax-loss selling. It's resisting its 200-day moving average. He wouldn't buy until it breaks above that. Short-term support is $30, but can it run ahead?
oil
gas field services
TOP PICK
This is the catch-up trade, anticipating the rotation from the winners to the losers. The Russell has underperformed this year but has just broken out. There was a massive consolidation this summer. He wouldn't be surprised if a wider pullback, pulled this back too. Nov.9-April 3 is seasonality for the Russell 2000.
investment companies
funds
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
It pays out 3% of revenues from the 900 A&W locations in Canada. Same-stores have grown 6.9%. The royalty rate doubled in recent years. This became parabolic, then consolidated this year. Momentum indicators point higher. Dec. 6-March 10 is seasonality. Fundamentals and technicals are good. (Analysts’ price target is $45.00)
food services
