DON'T BUY
This used to be a darling, but when WTI goes up these light oil producers just don't move. The street got concerned about their level of M&A and started to compared to PenWest. Netbacks are similar to their peers. Not a lot of reasons to own this -- especially compared to US Permian companies.
DON'T BUY
The balance sheet is good. However, being a Canadian light oil producer there is just not a lot of interest. They also had a vocal short seller to deal with. He does not feel the need to own this one.
DON'T BUY
If WTI goes to $70? They have done a leadership change, has cut costs and has been rationalizing assets in Sask. All the right things. The dividend has been cut to virtual zero and the share buy back is helping metrics. It is no longer loved like it once was. At $70 WTI, he would rather invest in US light oil producers or Canadian heavy oil producers.
DON'T BUY
VII-T very a well regarded technical team and management. Their knock against them is their lack of inventory. Their decline rate has been very high -- 45%. He would rather purchase purchase someone like NVA-T. (Analysts’ price target is $17.00)
TOP PICK
The highest leverage to both rising oil prices and tighter WCS differentials. He thinks WCS will trade to $17-$20 for the next few years. For every $1 change in oil prices, he thinks their share price will improve by $1. Husky walking away was a great opportunity to buy at a great value. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.23)
TOP PICK
Has been massively under performing the move on WTI. If you believe $60 WTI, this is a $4 share price, he thinks. You are paying for their existing production, not including future growth or value for their Eagleford assets. They are trading like a bankrupt company. Yield 0%. (Analysts’ price target is $3.77)
TOP PICK
A $20 billion company that can grow at 20% per year even at $50 oil. They are in the US Permian. The rocks are better than any Canadian light producer. They will move first when oil prices go back up and investor dollars come back into the market. They have 7000 well locations -- a great inventory. Yield 0.49%. (Analysts’ price target is $148.41)
COMMENT
They kicked the can down the road by re-opening the US government today. Now, can the US solve the China tariff issue? Then, we can focus on the economy and fundamentals. We'll return to mediocre or slightly above average 3-7% earnings growth, but don't expect 18% growth as we did in 2008 right before that recession. This is good. Of course, some companies like Intel today will disappoint, but that's normal. Don't invest with your gut (emotional), but stick to the long-term. Investing is a marathon, not a sprint. When stocks plunge....do nothing. Nobody knowd what will happen, but we know what works over time. Be patient.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
He's long owned this. A commodity (garbage) business, but they know how to run a business and they also own their landfills. Generates a lot of fresh cash flow; dividend increases; and share buybacks. A U.S. company on the TSX, so you don't worry about exchange rate. A little pricey now, but buy on a pullback.
BUY
The founding families completely sold their shares, so SJ had a rough 2018. But this year could be a growth year. But this can be a cyclical business--replacing train tracks. They should grow revenues 3-5% a year and make further acquisitions. Expects dividend growth. Very undervalued.
BUY
He loves Canadian banks and TD is his largest holding. Buy one bank and hold onto it for dear life. Forget constant worries about mortgages, housing, etc. The banks keep putting the puck in the net. He expects 8-10% earnings growth and dividend increases this year by them.
DON'T BUY
Will it return to $28 within 12 months? He sold it in 2011 and hasn't returned. MFC never fully recovered from the Great Recession. What is their competitive advantage or moat? He prefer Power Corp among Canadian insurers and dividend payers. He avoid this sector, really.
DON'T BUY
He hasn't studied this in a while. The US telcos don't tempt him. They've acquired a lot of entertainment platforms, then paid them off. Bad balance sheet. He prefers Canadian telcos like Rogers who have de-levered a lot. Don't buy a stock only for its dividend.
COMMENT
He owns a lot of their debt. But he'd rather invest in Warren Buffet than Prem Watsa. WB is a better buyer/investor overall.
COMMENT
Amazon is threatending to open convenience stores; but no business is immunse to Amazon. It was dumb of him to pass on ATD when it was cheaper. Smart capital allocators who constantly grow shareholder value. He needs to look into ATD closer.