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Signal
Opinion
Expert
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 25, 2019
They have SE Sask production. He likes the management team and there are good assets. The dividend is sustainable. He does not own it because he prefers US light oil producers. The growth rates are double in the Permian and inventory depth is twice that of Canada. He is only paying a one point premium to buy in the US. He likes Canadian heavy oil instead.
They have SE Sask production. He likes the management team and there are good assets. The dividend is sustainable. He does not own it because he prefers US light oil producers. The growth rates are double in the Permian and inventory depth is twice that of Canada. He is only paying a one point premium to buy in the US. He likes Canadian heavy oil instead.
BUY
BUY
January 25, 2019
He bought it two weeks ago. They have improved their reserve life index from 4 to 11 years. Their netbacks are expected to grow 19% this year. They will likely buy back 10% of their shares next year. There is Colombian exposure, but for 4% weight in his portfolio he is happy to take the risk.
He bought it two weeks ago. They have improved their reserve life index from 4 to 11 years. Their netbacks are expected to grow 19% this year. They will likely buy back 10% of their shares next year. There is Colombian exposure, but for 4% weight in his portfolio he is happy to take the risk.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 25, 2019
(A Top Pick Feb 09/18, Down 57%) He sold them out at $3.50 back in April or May last year. Oil was at $60 and cash flow was growing. He liked this pressure pumper then. But now natural gas prices have gone to zero and condensate discounts have expanded. The whole service sector was decimated.
(A Top Pick Feb 09/18, Down 57%) He sold them out at $3.50 back in April or May last year. Oil was at $60 and cash flow was growing. He liked this pressure pumper then. But now natural gas prices have gone to zero and condensate discounts have expanded. The whole service sector was decimated.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 25, 2019
(A Top Pick Feb 09/18, Down 28%) This was an IPO of the US assets of Trican. A US pressure pumper company that is still under stress. Investors have to remember this sector has to compete with others with the same rate of return metrics. This company will again under spend their budget -- not fantastic.
(A Top Pick Feb 09/18, Down 28%) This was an IPO of the US assets of Trican. A US pressure pumper company that is still under stress. Investors have to remember this sector has to compete with others with the same rate of return metrics. This company will again under spend their budget -- not fantastic.
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
January 25, 2019
(A Top Pick Feb 09/18, Down 80%) He sold at over $10. They did a horrifically timed US acquisition. He also didn't like the predatory cutting of rates to steal two Trican customers. He will never invest in them again.
(A Top Pick Feb 09/18, Down 80%) He sold at over $10. They did a horrifically timed US acquisition. He also didn't like the predatory cutting of rates to steal two Trican customers. He will never invest in them again.
COMMENT
COMMENT
January 25, 2019
He thinks WCS will stabilize at $17 discount to WTI for the next few years. If you see Line 3 being completed this year and rail filling the gap, this company offers a tremendous leverage to tightening WCS. Their debt levels have been cut sharply. At $55 WTI, this company generates massive cash flow. At $80 WTI and $20 WCS discount, his target is $4.13 for the stock price. At $70 it is $2.67 per share. You can see the leverage.
He thinks WCS will stabilize at $17 discount to WTI for the next few years. If you see Line 3 being completed this year and rail filling the gap, this company offers a tremendous leverage to tightening WCS. Their debt levels have been cut sharply. At $55 WTI, this company generates massive cash flow. At $80 WTI and $20 WCS discount, his target is $4.13 for the stock price. At $70 it is $2.67 per share. You can see the leverage.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
January 25, 2019
This used to be a darling, but when WTI goes up these light oil producers just don't move. The street got concerned about their level of M&A and started to compared to PenWest. Netbacks are similar to their peers. Not a lot of reasons to own this -- especially compared to US Permian companies.
This used to be a darling, but when WTI goes up these light oil producers just don't move. The street got concerned about their level of M&A and started to compared to PenWest. Netbacks are similar to their peers. Not a lot of reasons to own this -- especially compared to US Permian companies.
