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COMMENT
Producers are already saying they are going to cut back their production. Capitalism usually finds a way to make it work, but would like to see if happen faster. We need to get a better price. Royalties and government revenues are going to be significantly down. This is not just an Alberta problem, but a Canadian problem. Albertans are very frustrated at lack of pipeline construction progress. If Bill C69 goes through in its current form, there will be few if any pipelines ever built again. Need more forward looking management and Boards in Canadian energy sector. She would like to see more 5 year strategic planning in the energy sector like you are currently seeing in other sectors.
HOLD
2 years out from now the stock should be significantly higher. They may struggle in the next quarter. They have low decline rates. Their main goal is to keep their dividend safe. If the oil differential continues longer term, then they may have to cut dividend, but it is safe in the near term. Yield = 14%
oil
gas
BUY
If you want more oilsands, less debt and more valuation, go with Suncor. CNQ is less oilsands, slightly more debt, and slightly less valuation. Both are on watch list. They will have tremendous free cash flows in the coming years as the oil differentials tighten. Both are low cost operators. Both are good buys, but would slightly prefer CNQ.
oil
gas
BUY
If you want more oilsands, less debt and more valuation, go with Suncor. CNQ is less oilsands, slightly more debt, and slightly less valuation. Both are on watch list. They will have tremendous free cash flows in the coming years as the oil differentials tighten. Both are low cost operators. Both are good buys, but would slightly prefer CNQ.
integrated oils
HOLD
She owns it but would consider it a hold and not an immediate buy. They are trying to sell some assets but may have some difficulty doing so. She expects some uncertainty in the coming quarters. She believes dividend should be fine. If they can’t sell their assets, may see a dividend cut, this is why it is a hold. Yield = 7%
oil
gas
HOLD
They are not getting the benefit they should be. They have done a complete change in their strategy. Their stock price has held fairly steady over the last year. They are experiencing better numbers than a lot of the small to mid cap names. She thinks it will be considerably higher stock price in 2 years time.
oil
gas
WAIT
This is a long term, well run, mostly gas run company. When LNG Canada project production starts, it may not specifically benefit Arc, but it will take some of the natgas out of the current pipeline infrastructure, which would benefit Arc. It is on her watch list. She thinks they will be buying Arc in the future.
oil
gas
