Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!
Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Josef Schachter commented about whether CASH, TDG-T, SDX-LN, TCW-T, PONY-T, SGY-T, LXE-X, CPG-T, WCP-T, PD-T, BIR-T, STEP-T, CASH, GTE-T, ESN-T, BXE-T, SU-T, CNQ-T, CR-T, BBI-X, BNP-T, ZPW-T, ING-N, FTN-T, VUG-T, ZWU-T, ZWE-T, ZWC-T are stocks to buy or sell.
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Market. Problems in Turkey causing flight to safe havens? Turkey has devalued 10-15% a year since 1990. Have to think we’re getting to global systemic credit risk. This is a big issue. So the US markets are gaining money flows, but this doesn’t mean it’s good. When US dollar gets stronger, there’s systemic risk to EM. Turkey is rolling over big time. The TUR ETF tracks Turkey, and it’s at same levels as at bottom of 2009 crisis. At some point it might look interesting, but not yet. EUFN tracks the European banks, and has been a range trade since 2009. We’re coming back to that level before things turn around. Markets are too complacent.
Time to move to cash? He can’t just say yes, because it depends on what’s appropriate for you. What if you’re wrong, and equity markets continue to rise another 25%? Still, he’s been playing defensively for 2 years now. Can still use ETFs to get yield and grow your portfolio, but take on a lot less risk. Have some cash, avoid the bigger risks, and look to buy safe havens like gold that are selling off now.
ZWC vs. ZWE vs. ZWU. ZWC has a lot of the good dividend payers with a covered call overlay. ZWU is lower risk than ZWC, as it doesn’t have exposure to energy and financials. If interest rates go up in a big way, ZWU will underperform, and could easily go down 3-5%. The dividends for these are safe. ZWU is attractive from a defensive standpoint. ZWE has exposure to the 3 biggest country markets, very few financials, a currency hedge, little Italy exposure. It could fall 5-7% in the next months, and then it would be a pretty decent buy.
ZWC vs. ZWE vs. ZWU. ZWC has a lot of the good dividend payers with a covered call overlay. ZWU is lower risk than ZWC, as it doesn’t have exposure to energy and financials. If interest rates go up in a big way, ZWU will underperform, and could easily go down 3-5%. The dividends for these are safe. ZWU is attractive from a defensive standpoint. ZWE has exposure to the 3 biggest country markets, very few financials, a currency hedge, little Italy exposure. It could fall 5-7% in the next months, and then it would be a pretty decent buy.
ZWC vs. ZWE vs. ZWU. ZWC has a lot of the good dividend payers with a covered call overlay. ZWU is lower risk than ZWC, as it doesn’t have exposure to energy and financials. If interest rates go up in a big way, ZWU will underperform, and could easily go down 3-5%. The dividends for these are safe. ZWU is attractive from a defensive standpoint. ZWE has exposure to the 3 biggest country markets, very few financials, a currency hedge, little Italy exposure. It could fall 5-7% in the next months, and then it would be a pretty decent buy.
VUG or S&P 500? Late in the investment cycle, growth stocks keep going up, but then very late in the cycle, you want to go into value. In 2000-2, growth underperformed, and value went up. Going to see a similar rotation into value over next 2 years. Underweight growth for the next couple of years, and overweight value. Almost certain recession in next 2 years, and growth always underperforms.
VIX volatility based ETFs. Problem with volatility futures is you have to be nimble like a brain surgeon. Or you could lose 5-10% a month. Would recommend shifting to more defensive holdings like ZPW to preserve capital. Gives you insulation on the downside, plus some yield. For the average investor, stay away from the VIX based ETFs.
VIX volatility based ETFs. Problem with volatility futures is you have to be nimble like a brain surgeon. Or you could lose 5-10% a month. Would recommend shifting to more defensive holdings like ZPW to preserve capital. Gives you insulation on the downside, plus some yield. For the average investor, stay away from the VIX based ETFs.
Educational segment. NAFTA and the Canadian dollar. Looks like US wants a bilateral trade agreement. Thinks there will be a deal with Mexico before November. If Canada doesn’t take a deal, that adds to uncertainty. Trump will put the screws to us, and not sure there’s a lot we can do about it. A tariff changes supply and demand, and forces up the US dollar. When Trump got elected, he talked the dollar down. But once he started tariffs, the US dollar went on a tear, which is likely to continue. For the Canadian dollar, it’s been getting weaker since 2012. Around 1.38 (or 72.5 cents) is the downside risk for the Canadian dollar, wherever NAFTA ultimately gets settled. Energy will underperform, and Canada along with it. Doesn’t see it getting much weaker than that unless Trudeau government completely botches the trade negotiations.
Oil. Still cautious on price of oil. Still thinks oil will go under $60 after the summer driving season. Demand normally peaks twice a year, the winter months, and the summer driving season. With OPEC increase in production, and US production growth, should see inventory build up in the fall months. He believes price should breach $60 in September or October.
Natural Gas. Is bullish on natural gas. Storage is not building because of strong air conditioning season in both US and Canada. May see build up of inventory before winter however expects to see price increases when winter breaks with first cold snap. He expects companies may start hedging prices this fall. Very bullish for Nat gas going into 2022 and beyond if LNG Canada gets approved. He sees us going from excess to shortage.
He likes the story. It is on his coverage list but not buy list yet. Will see its growth in 2nd quarter of calendar 2019 as their facility is being built to ramp up production. Has a 1 year target of $0.72 and $2.00 in 3-5 years time. Management team has done well with a large land spread and massive amount of drilling opportunity.
