Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

Can bonds fluctuate in price from market fears? Interest rates, definitely influence bonds. Inflation: the market will perceive what inflation will be in the future, which will effect the premium on a bond upwards. Bonds are more complicated than stocks, and bonds move quickly. It's hard to answer this questions, since bonds are not simple like stocks. Currencies and world events also effect bonds.

A good company and well-run, but it's now pausing after a series of lower highs. It's consolidating after a slight downturn. He'd consider it if it stays at $96. It's a possible buy. But he thinks he'll consolidate for a while.

He's looking for something that won't fall as much as the markets this summer, when he expects a correction. This is it.

It's been a dog in his portfolio, but he will give it one last chance, hoping for a rebound. Thinks it's been oversold.

It's on-trend. India is not that correlated to North American markets (and he expects a difficult summer here). It's bouncing off its trendline, and India has a healthy long-term trendline.

When do you sell and how much, using 200-day moving averages and technical analysis? He uses a combination of a lower-low and a break in the 200-day and wait three days (in case it's a one-day spike). This time of year, he raises a bit of cash to 15% maximum. If a stock breaks down, he uses a ladder approach, the Bearometer, consisting of a series of indicators, triggering selling until he hits 50% cash. (He uses the S&P 500 as his guide.)

(A Past Top Pick on Feb.5, 2018, Down 7.5%) A dog. He'll wait another week or two to see this turns around, but he's skeptical and will likely sell. He has a bit of hope. This sector's been oversold, and May is the time to buy consumer staples when it should rise.

(A Past Top Pick on Feb.5, 2018, Up 6%) He's bearish about this summer and how FANG stocks will do, but Canadian tech stocks like this are overlooked. It's a steady eddy. It has legs. This won't take off, but you won't lose money and will make you a little.

Strategy using weekly and daily charts? Different time frames, so each chart tracks the momentum of a stock over different spans. It boils down to: if you're a short-term trader, use a daily chart; if you're an intermediate trader (a few months) use the weekly.

Overview. The DOW is taking another hit today, we are near the year’s low. As the market is moving up and down, it is hitting lower highs and lower lows. 23,300 will be an important point for the Dow. We might hit that very soon, yielding our first major correction since 2009. We are down about 10% for the year but we could hit 20% or 25%. We are having the correction now because: (1) The Federal Reserve is increasing the cost of money, which reduces the value of earnings; (2) The money supply is tightening. The US money supply was growing at a rate of over 7% per year but is now down at 4% under the MZM terminology (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply). If you want 3% economic growth and 2% to 3% inflation, you need 5% or 6% money growth or more. The money supply is not growing fast enough and so money is getting tighter and that in turn drives the US dollar higher. (3) The amount of debt that has to be raised is enormous, but the Fed is not buying more and Europe is not buying more, so interest rates are rising. So money is more expensive and tighter. He thinks this is why the market is correcting. He thinks the DOW could go down 3000 over the next three months and he thinks people should be cautious about buying today, and hold onto cash, because there will be great buying opportunities late in Q3 or in Q4. He thinks energy stocks could be caught up in this.

Energy Prices. When he was on the show previously, he was bearish on natural gas (December) and then bullish. Since then, natural gas plays like Birchcliff and Painted Pony have gone up a lot. Birchcliff is up 50% from its lows. He thinks natural gas will come down a little, but oil will come down further, perhaps 20%. He sees a $10 risk premium in the current price of oil. Also, if the US dollar rises 10%, the price of oil (in Canadian dollars) will drop. He thinks oil will drop to the $50’s in the next 2-3 months, which will bring the TSX energy index down by 15 to 20%. He thinks that the risk premium is partially based on anticipation of a possible loss of supply of oil from Iran, but he doesn’t think that Europe will go along with those sanctions. In addition, after the upcoming elections in Iraq are held, it is possible that the pro-American faction will win and Iraq will rapidly increase its sales of oil to address the war damage to its economy or that the pro-Iranian faction will win and limit oil production to keep prices high. There will be more news in mid-May and at that time, the price of oil might come down hard. The market is currently bullish on oil because crude oil inventories in the United States are down by over 100 million barrels and wordwide they are down by over 200 million. He showed a chart on World Oil Supply and Demand from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (chart is at https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/Documents/research/econdata/energycharts.pdf) . This shows that the demand for oil will be outpaced by supply growth. The implied oil change is for an increase in inventory in 2018 that looks similar to 2014 and 2015, which will be bad for the price of oil. This year, the United States production has gone up from 9.8 million barrels at the start of the year to 10.58 million. The US production has increased over 750,000 barrels in just 4 months. This rate is more than the increase in demand.

They acquired Spartan Energy, which gives them a low-cost Saskatchewan producer and a lot of light oil, which is easy to move. Their balance sheet has improved significantly. They had $1.36 billion in debt with $1.57 in equity. That’s a tight balance sheet. After the acquisition, which was an all-stock deal, they’ll have $1.5 billion of debt against $2.8 billion in equity. This gives them more oil in Canada and a much better balance sheet. He thinks this is an interesting story, the price has come down and thinks it is a good value if it breaks below $40. Spartan was a good buy for them and the next buys will probably be international.

He likes Blackbird. The stock is trading at $0.37 and has about $0.35 of hard value. They produce about 1200 boe/day, they have 4000 boe/day of capacity. They’re working with Tidewater Midstream to bring a new facilty into service in the area, which will be on in calendar Q2 of 2019, which will give them the ability to ramp up quickly to 10,000 boe/day, 50% liquids. He loves the management team. It has great drilling locations, which offers very economic wells in a great area. He has a $0.70 one-year target and a $2 five-year target.

Excellent news recently, with drilling success in Morocco and Egypt. They have lots of drilling to do. They will probably double production from 3200 boe/day to 7500 to 8000 by the end of this year. They are getting lucrative natural gas prices, $12 US, in Morocco. He has a $2 target for this year and a $5 target for the next 3-to-5 years. He thinks the price could back down in May and June, He thinks May will be a critical month because of the potential Iran sanctions and the potential change in production after elections in Iraq. If oil breaks $60, he expects a small decline in these stocks. This company reminds him of Centurion Energy, which was a natural gas play in Egypt that went from $0.66 to $12 in 4 years. Doubling production in a year, which SDX is doing, is awesome.

He really likes this but has not moved it to his Action Alert list yet. Book value is $3.40, which is about where the stock is trading. It has a fabulous balance sheet. They have a little bit of debt, $83 million, but they own a position in Keane Energy which is worth much more than that, so this is effectively a debt-free company. They are the largest fracker in Canada. The stock is up about 20% from its lows of the last month because of the bounce. Wait until the stock drops again; he thinks it will go below $3.