Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and William Chin commented about whether AFN-T, CHR-T, GIB.A-T, EMP.A-T, ATS-T, GIB.A-T, NPI-T, XOM-N, IMO-T, HBC-T, CTC.A-T, ATRL-T, AAPL-Q, SLB-N, META-Q, ATL-T, CVE-T, AQN-T, ENB-T, AMZN-Q, CM-T, TECK.B-T, ITEQ-US, ENF-T, ARX-T, FTN-T, ZWU-T, ZDM-T, ZSP-T, XSP-T, VSP-T are stocks to buy or sell.
General Market Comment. The next rate hearing meeting will be a big one. Expectations are a 25 basis point rate hike and this is fully priced in the market. The question is what is the outlook -- hawkish or dovish? He is also watching Facebook closely. There were 50 million people who had a data breach. There is a zone of support around $165-$170 for the stock, if this news causes a breach of this level it would be a really bad sign that the market feels this is bad news and will impact earnings going forward. He is also concerned about China and the threat the US will put tariffs in place. He thinks Kudlow will be pro-tariff against China.
Canadian Bond ETFs. The current rate increases are still in the early cycle in the US and Canada will continue to lag behind. There will be some inflation pressures and bonds will sell off a bit. He expects US long bonds to yield 3.25% or higher, US 10 year 3% or higher. He does not like the yields here, he will wait a while. ZFL-T is the best ETF to play this, but be patient and wait for the yields to hit his targets.
Canadian Insurance Companies. He prefers the diversification an ETF offers rather than holding individual stocks. When yields are rising, the profitability of lifecos goes up. The next recession will likely cause interest rates to fall, even go negative, and this is a real risk to this sector. This is a trade – don’t get married to it.
Educational Segment. Richard Arms, technical expert passing. He was a legendary mentor for technicians. The Arms Index was designed by him. It looks at the number of stocks advancing and declining relative to their trading volume in a ratio. When the Index exceeds 1 it implies more selling volume. The current market action is telling us we are getting selling into strength. He applied candlestick patterns to trading volume -- the width of the candlestick shows significance based on volume. The sell-off of the S&P in early February indicated a potential reversal pattern. Now, the sell-offs on recent highs are confirming we are seeing more selling into the up-tick rather than buying into the pullbacks.
This is a very interest rate sensitive ETF, holding pipelines, telcos and utilities. As these are very capital intensive entities with high borrowing needs they get hurt with rising interest rates. He doesn’t think interest rates will be going much higher and he will be buying more on if prices get lower, because he likes the yield and sees it as a good diversifier in his portfolio.
He thinks this sector is the best in the world. Many of Intel’s chip breakthroughs happened here. Cybersecurity is an area of growth for the next 30 years he thinks. This ETF puts together the best companies in this sector. This is one of his long term recommendations and thinks it is a buy on weakness holding.
General Market Comment. He thinks the S&P500 has tried to regain lost ground, but it is stalling at a critical level. The Nasdaq made a new high recently, but there was a key reversal and it could be a false breakout. The TSX is having a bearish setup, unable to trade back above key resistance and is in a worse setup than the S&P500. The Canadian dollar is the symptom of all our problems. He thinks it will continue to weaken against the US dollar and could weaken another 3 cents.
TSX Composite Comment. He is worried in the short-term. There has been an over-supply built up in the market and there has been two key peaks, which we have not been able to trade above and that could signal a move lower. Weak consumer spending and a wide WCS discount for Canadian crude oil are all hurting the economy. He sees July 1 key in the NAFTA discussions as it is the Mexican general election.