BUY

It is part of a broader umbrella used as a vehicle for asset ‘drop down’ to enjoy a lower tax rate. It has done fairly well over the long haul but sold off as of late. He plays pipelines thought the parent, however. But he has no qualms with this one.

WAIT

A prominent short seller came out with an attack on the business model. The work was pretty sketchy in the short seller’s report. They will deal with it when they report on November 2. He continues to like it. The pull back is just a cooling off. It is a normal course correction in a stock with a high multiple. They anticipate profitability in the fourth quarter.

DON'T BUY

One of the larger E&P companies in the sector. He has not been that keen on the sector as of late. The problem is a lack of pipeline capacity to get the product out. Western Canadian Crude is trading at a decent discount. Profitability is not where he would like to see it with most of these Canadian companies. You want to go best of breed. You want to own downstream assets. He prefers SU-T because of great upstream assets as well as refineries and service stations.

WAIT

An engineering and construction firm, high quality. It stumbled a few years ago and they are righting the ship. They are not fully out of the woods but they have turned the corner. Even if they get a small fraction of the plans to build out public infrastructure in Canada, they will do well. He will revisit it in another quarter. It has a long history of organic growth as well as growth by acquisition.

BUY

There are two equal and offsetting forces. They just made a large acquisition, taking them off their main strategy. It looks like it will be accretive. He likes the deal. The offsetting headwind is the incursion of AMZN-Q into grocery. He thinks this is overdone. Whole foods does not have that big a presence in Canada.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 7/16, Up 4%) It has been underwhelming over the last 10 months. It is an illustration of why you want to be patient and diversified. It is a building block and serves a purpose. What has held it back is a miss-guided belief that electric cars will kill the internal combustion engine, which he does not accept. The decline is based on a decline in fuel traffic which in turn means a decline in convenience store sales. He continues to like this one.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 7/16, Up 12%) The macro environment benefited it. They have a strong wealth management franchise which is growing market share. They have a very strong and rapidly growing Asian business. Their new CEO is a strong leader.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 7/16, Up 15%) Canada’s largest auto parts company. It traditionally trades at a discount to the market. It is an extremely profitable and rapidly growing company. The recent surge is caused by industry specific forces and news releases. Hurricanes in the US have affected half a million cars which will create increased demand for parts.

PARTIAL SELL

A great company, a consolidator in the prepared food space. It is always expensive. It keeps expanding. You could take some partial profits to avoid portfolio concentration.

PARTIAL SELL

It has done quite well and is now one of the larger toy companies in the world. They strike licensing deals with investors of toys. There will be hits and misses each season. It is an expensive stock. Hold it but consider taking profits to avoid portfolio concentration.

COMMENT

Canada’s largest miner of base metals and bulk commodities like coal, zinc and copper. It has lagged some of the more pure plays on base metals. He would prefer LUN-T. He is indifferent on this one.

DON'T BUY

He lumps it into the bond proxy bucket and so does not own it. He would prefer ENB-T because it has an element of growth – a high dividend close to 5% and an explicit plan to grow the dividend 10-12% a year. You need this to avoid multiple compression.

DON'T BUY

A gas station operator. They recently bought odds and end of CST brands. They struck a sweetheart deal on assets that ATD.B-T has to cast off because of competition bureau reasons. PKI-T is quite expensive compared to their profitability.

COMMENT

Canadian Dollar vs. US Dollar. He won’t forecast the near term trend on the exchange rate. To protect a portfolio against a rising dollar is to run a balanced portfolio of Canadian and US equities as well as fixed income. If you are only considering Canadian companies than buy those that generate the majority of their revenue in the US. If you think the US dollar is going higher you want to underweight Gold and gold equities.

SELL

It has lost the overwhelming majority of its value. It is burdened with leverage. It is important to step back and take a cold, clinical view of it. The market does not care what you paid for it. The prospects going forward don’t look very favourable for it. The subordinate debt went into default this week. The stock is more of a lottery ticket.