DON'T BUY

Thinks this will be going down, because management has lost credibility. They don’t seem to have a very good grip on what they are doing.

HOLD

This is a bet on Jonathan Goodman, who is probably the smartest guy when it comes to doing what he is doing. This is not a trade, it is a long-term play and you are betting on his ability to get things done.

COMMENT

You are going to hear a lot about Bitcoin and blockchain, particularly blockchain, which has a ton of deals coming to market with lots of promotion. What is interesting about this company is that they have been in this space for years. Blockchain is decentralized storage, making hacking data extremely difficult. Yesterday, they signed a deal with a company that specializes in blockchain programming and technology. He likes this one. The stock seems to be very cheap.

WAIT

Finances input costs for farmers. In return, they don’t get paid money, but get paid a piece of the crop. The company has had trouble making this work as there is a lot of volatility. He likes the people who run this. You should wait until they work this out and iron out the kinks in the model.

COMMENT

This whole industry needs consolidation. They are going through the strong and painful process of consolidation, and it is going to take time. Eventually this should work. He wouldn’t be in a rush to buy this.

COMMENT

The CEO is very impressive and knows the business quite well. If you want exposure to cobalt and are prepared to take risks, it may be of interest. Clearly cobalt demand is going to rise with the electrification of cars. Very speculative.

COMMENT

Kind of a rollup story. These stories always work well at first and then almost always fall apart, because it is hard to acquire businesses. They did a bunch of acquisitions, which worked out great until inevitably the wheels fell off. The question is, what are they going to do with this dog’s breakfast of assets. They are in the media space, and those assets tend to have long life, so they might get lucky, but he would be cautious.

TOP PICK

He likes oil. At some point money is going to leave technology and come into unloved sectors. This one is relatively safe. The management and board are focusing on free cash flow and increasing the dividend, which is decent now but could get bigger. Dividend yield of 3.9%. (Analysts’ price target is $8.50.)

TOP PICK

Zinc is unloved and nobody talks about mining, it’s all Google and Facebook. At some point these things will sell off and the money is going to go into unloved and forgotten spaces. This is trading at 7X earnings and 90% of BV. They are buying back stock. Generating a lot of free cash flow.

TOP PICK

This is for speculative money. They make a “push to talk” in-car wireless cellular device. They are the only company globally that is making this. Their revenues are growing very quickly. What is interesting is that AT&T and Verizon want into this business, and this company is trying very hard to become a preferred vendor. If they make it, this stock is going to go a lot higher. This is risky. He likes the CEO, and thinks he can pull it off.

N/A

Market.The values aren’t really here for a long-sustained market ride. He would give the market 2%-3% more to go before it runs out of gas. However, it is grinding on, so what are people doing? There is an element saying they are going to buy ETF’s. Then there are other people asking where are the really good values? Banks and financials really stand out as being the cheapest group. The auto stocks have been really ground down in the last year or so, and statistically if their earnings hold where they are, they are actually a reasonable value. He is running about 30% cash.

DON'T BUY

This has run out of upside potential. It also hit one of his very strong technical resistance points. A barrier that is very, very hard to overcome.

COMMENT

This is not cheap. On a P/B basis, it is extremely expensive. He calculates it is about 40% overpriced. Be careful. Use a stop loss.

COMMENT

The last time this peaked, it was at the equivalent P/B of about $71, and that would remain as his upside potential. It has overrun its FMV of about $55. It is getting on the expensive end of the spectrum.

DON'T BUY

The last time he recommended this was about 2 years ago when the stock took a real dive. Subsequent to that, the company got back up to its usual high valuation. It is now starting to roll over. It really doesn’t have much in the way of upside potential. Wait for another set back, or buy in slowly for the next 6 months where you might catch a nice low. Dividend yield of 4.7%.