He likes the service sector, but if he is right and the price of oil is going down below $40, these stocks get hurt more. They are high beta securities. This company has a nice investment in Kean, the US assets, which almost equals the amount of debt they have. At the end of Q1, BV was $2.62. Feels this is going to be very attractive in the next cycle. Feels the stock could come down below $2.
Will they be raising their dividends? They have 3 conditions before raising dividends. 1.) Balance sheet being repaired, which has been done. 2.) Getting free cash flow in order to have money on a sustainable basis. 3.) Stabilization of the commodity, which he feels won’t be until 2018. This is now trading at a discount to BV, so it is a cheap stock, but expects it will get somewhat cheaper in Q4.
Pipelines? You have a good dividend yield with all the companies. For income oriented investors, the big issue for them is the regulatory environment. Is Kinder Morgan (KML-T) going to be able to get the pipeline built, which they want to start by the end of the year. The BC government is an issue. TransCanada (TRP-T), regarding the XL line, is now asking if shippers want to take the space and firm up their commitment. There is also the reversal of the line in the US with Enbridge (ENB-T). The whole service sector related to the infrastructure is now a political football.
This is cheap. BV is over $17. They announced the results for Q2, 90% oil, 175,600 BOE’s day. They have net income of $.15 versus a loss of $.45 a year ago. The problem is, they have $4 billion in debt. If the price of oil goes down, how do they service the debt and how do they keep their volumes up. They are on a treadmill trying to keep their numbers up. If the price of oil comes down by $10-$15, they are not going to be able to keep that treadmill up. If oil goes below $40 like he expects, you will be able to buy the stock at under $8.
Natural gas? Currently the price is $2.95US and $2Cdn, which is a big gap. Once we get past the summer air conditioning season, the price of natural gas falters, and there will be days where it will be under $1. This probably won’t get out of the doghouse until just before winter. If there is a cold winter, we might see $3 again. He would hold off. There will be some great buys at some point.
In Q1 they did 21,455 BOE’s a day. This is the 4th company this team has led. They build these from nothing to 3000, 4000, 5000 BOE’s a day and then sell. Just did an acquisition late last year, 65,000, from Arc Resources (ARX-T), which made them a very focused player in Saskatchewan. They are 93% oil. Insiders are very large shareholders, owning over 10% of the company. A table pounding buy under $4.
He would stay away. Just reported with $.71 in cash flow versus $.53. The problem is, $13 billion of debt against $18 billion of equity. They are trying to sell $4-$5 billion of assets to get the balance sheet in line. The only buyers are a few Canadian companies. This company was doing very well in thermal, but by going in and trying to be Pan-Canadian again, getting into the conventional oil/gas business, the market is skeptical and the stock is going to go much lower.
Just reported Q2 results. Average production rose 4% to 67, 240 BOE’s a day. Cash flow is up 3% to $147 million. Very active in Germany and offshore Ireland, so they get European pricing which is 3 or 4 times the price we get here. They are also in Australia, US and Canada. This has some vulnerability to the mid to high $30. There is a chance for the stock to back off. Over 6% yield.
Very leveraged to what is going on in oil and gas and is hit by lower commodity prices. BV ex-goodwill is $5.90. The problem is, they have debt of about $1.9 billion as of March 31. The equity component is $1.9 billion. This is very close to being a Buy now, but it is vulnerable. The last $15 off on the price of oil can have a significant erosion in high beta energy stocks.
He is concerned about this company. The balance sheet as of March 31 had $1.8 billion of debt against $1.9 billion of equity. Have some financial derivatives on their books, but they are minuscule. Because of their debt, when the market gets hurt and the value goes down, they have to write down the assets. They’ve taken impairments in the past on assets when the price of oil has been beaten up. Be careful.
This is a company he really likes. They did 13,800 BOE’s a day in Q1. The balance sheet is in very good shape. BV is $3.48. Very cheap on all the value metrics. If we see the price of oil go down, this could come down below $2. It has a very nice dividend. A table pounding buy under $1.80. He has a 12-month target for the end of 2018 of $3.70.
Energy. We’ve had a $5-$6 rally in the last 2-3 weeks, but we have had 4 or 5 rallies since the beginning of the year. Oil was $54-$55 in January, came down to $48 in March, ran up to $54 and then down to $46. Getting to $50 was based on Saudi Arabia saying they were going to cut back by 600,000 barrels a day. There were 2 military events in the Middle East, an Iranian ship came close to an American warship in Yemen, Iran supporting one side of the insurgents against the Saudi supported insurgents, and they fired a missile towards the energy producing areas of Saudi Arabia. We are near the end of this bounce and are going to come down. Once we get through the summer driving season, ending in the 1st week of September, we will probably see a bust to a $42 low. We are going to bust $40 because demand starts to fall off in September by about 1 million barrels a day from the summer peak driving season.