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There has recently been a rally in uranium stocks. The general impression is that uranium prices have probably troughed at the $20 spot level. There is no near term catalyst to get the prices going up. It is unprofitable at this level for mines to be producing, and mines have been shutting down. Nuclear reactors have been very slow to start up with very weak demand for uranium.
This has been repositioning its portfolios businesses over the last 5-6 years since the financial crisis. They were decreasing their exposure in GE Capital, retrenching in those businesses and selling off some. In October they announced a joint venture with Baker Hughes where GE is going to own 60%. They still have 8 different reporting segments, with none accounting for 20% of their earnings. Still very diversified. Trading at about 20X forward earnings, so it is not really that attractive. With divesting of assets, they have to replace the earnings those assets were generating. They’ve been putting some of that money into share buybacks, but that can only go on so long. She prefers others.
Competition is fierce, but in terms of square footage growth, it has moderated from prior years. Loblaw owns Shopper Drugs as well, and she likes the drug retail. Also they both have the best locations. The company has gone through a period where they introduced new IT systems, refurbished larger stores, and are seeing the benefit of that flow through now.
A generic manufacturer, but do have some branded drugs. The company has been experiencing quite a bit of competition on one of their key branded drugs, so the profit growth is very uncertain, and the share price responded accordingly. There is just not enough clarity going forward.
This has done well since going public. There is a lot of momentum behind it. They are in the right space in terms of providing all the back-office systems for online retail, a sector that is growing very strongly. As a value manager, it is difficult for her to buy names like this, because there is so much momentum and the valuation is very high.
This pulled back because it had to reduce its earnings guidance for this upcoming year. They had been guiding for 10%-14% growth for the next few years, and have had to reduce that to 10% going forward. This is because their drug retail side has been excluded in certain pharmacy networks. The valuation is very attractive at about 13 or 14 times forward earnings. A well-managed company.
(A Top Pick Feb 9/16. Up 8.6%.) They are doing very well on their theatre side. They have no controls on the movie slate, but have made a lot of good effort on diversifying the revenue stream. We are seeing that with the opening of the rec rooms. The media side, which is about 20% of their revenue, is increasing with all the digital signage. They got the A&W across North America. Yield of 3%.
(A Top Pick Feb 9/16. Up 17.52%.) She still likes this. It actually lagged during the whole post election rally. She likes the secular play on online advertising, which is a growing trend. Of all the digital ads in the US, this company takes about 40%, and she expects this to continue. Trading at about 21X forward earnings, which is reasonable given that she thinks their earnings can grow in the 18%-20% range over the foreseeable future.
(A Top Pick Feb 9/16. Up 21.74%.) This is really a play on the US economy, US GDP growth, employment growth, etc. They are all trending up and are reasonably healthy. As housing starts and turnovers improve, that will promote housing renovations and repair. About two thirds of US housing is over 30 years old, which means more repair and renovations. Good dividend yield of 2.1% and always increase it every year.
Canadian Banks? They’ve had a very good 2016, but remember that 2015 was a negative year for banks. They were down about 11% on average because of concerns on energy, housing crisis, etc. Earnings were revised upwards and multiple expansions back to historical averages. She still likes them, because she is constructive on the Canadian and US economy. Her long-time favourites have been Royal Bank (RY-T) and Toronto Dominion (TD-T), and also owns Bank of Montréal (BMO-T). TD and Royal have exposure to the US with TD at about 25%-30%, and Royal at 22%. Thinks Royal’s is going to increase as they are now integrating City National. These both are trading at reasonable valuations.
Canadian Banks? They’ve had a very good 2016, but remember that 2015 was a negative year for banks. They were down about 11% on average because of concerns on energy, housing crisis, etc. Earnings were revised upwards and multiple expansions back to historical averages. She still likes them, because she is constructive on the Canadian and US economy. Her long-time favourites have been Royal Bank (RY-T) and Toronto Dominion (TD-T), and also owns Bank of Montréal (BMO-T). TD and Royal have exposure to the US with TD at about 25%-30%, and Royal at 22%. Thinks Royal’s is going to increase as they are now integrating City National. These both are trading at reasonable valuations.
67% natural gas liquids, and their properties are in very low cost regions, Northeast BC. Like many other producers, they’ve cut the CapX budgets from a few years ago, and are kind of repositioning where they want to focus. They are increasing their CapX budgets this year. At these price levels, she would start nibbling.
Market. The P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is at about 17X 2017 estimated earnings, above the long-term historical averages of 14X or 15X. Some strategists have upwardly revised numbers for this year on the premise that Trump is able to get through his corporate tax cuts, from 35% down to 15%. For every 1% cut, it adds about $1.80 to earnings, so if he even does 5% and brings it to 20%, that could potentially add $20 to 2017 earnings. We do need the profit growth to come through. Right now, the expectation for the 4th quarter earnings is that they are going to grow about 4.5% year-over-year. Usually they surprise to the upside because companies are cautious. We should have less headwinds with energy.