Today, Jerome Hass and John O'Connell, CFA commented about whether CELG-Q, DIS-N, META-Q, FFH-T, MRE-T, VRX-T, ALA-T, DHR-N, TRP-T, MRU-T, POT-T, BMY-N, CPG-T, ABX-T, INTC-Q, BAM.A-T, MG-T, SPE-T, KEL-T, CSCO-Q, CXR-T, H-T, MFC-T, GE-N, TECK.B-T, ECI-T, DSG-T, EFL-T, SOY-T, HLTH-A, GS-T, DH-T, FFH-T, KXS-T, SVC-T, JKPTF-5, AGF.B-T, DBO-T, TII-X, FRU-T, VRX-T, DCI-T, CNK-N, CGX-T, CXR-T, NYX-X, AQN-T, AT-T, TOY-T, EXE-T, GH-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Focused on supply chain management, and tends to deal with difficult cases that can’t be met by traditional ERP systems. It is growing at a fairly decent clip, and thinks they have recently upped their guidance for 2016. Trades at lofty multiples, but most of their SAS peers tend to as well. On his radar screen.
*SHORT* Up 400% year to date. He hasn’t had this much conviction in a Short idea since Valeant (VRX-T) last year. First this is a sexy sector, lithium ion batteries. Then you spice it up even more by a few references to Tesla Motors, or Elon Musk. Mix in the leading edge technology that the previous owners paid you to take off their hands, and finally throw in some huge potential sales agreements, memorandum of understanding or Letter of Intents, with a prospect of more to come. A 20-year chart shows a series of very sharp peaks and valleys. The current CFO has been leading the firm since its IPO (2001?). Management has a history of overpromising and underdelivering. Thinks there will be a financing coming, and thinks it will be through an equity issue.
Every portfolio should have some low maintenance stocks and this is one. At the beginning of every quarter they know what 90% of their quarterly revenues are going to look like, and spend the next 90 days getting the next 10%. Investors like the stability and consistently on this, as well as the long-term growth.
Market. Underneath the surface, there is a lot of good value in the marketplace. The drug industry has been under attack and has been a political issue, and getting closer to the election those kind of issues will be set aside. Technology stocks lost their leadership last year and a lot of them are trading at pretty good valuations. Metals/materials stocks had a big, big run. It’s a bit of a grab bag, but in the end, investors are still confronted with the issue of what they have to do with their money now. In the end, investors have to earn a return. There are individual investors which are increasingly investing through ETF’s, and then there are big institutional investment funds that have rules and they have to invest for the long-term, and have to take a very long, long term approach. There are a lot of good companies that are paying decent dividends. Earnings growth is okay. The US economy is doing fine. Interest rates remain very low, which is good for consumers and for business. The Federal Reserve Board remains very accommodative. Employment growth in the US is pretty good.
Correlation between Gold & the US$? This is two very different markets. If you look at the correlation over a very long time frame, there isn’t a strong correlation at all. The US$ is going up because investors see it as a safe haven and a high yielding currency compared to European currencies. A lot of people that buy currencies do not buy gold. A lot of Gold is a store for people, sometimes speculative. It is also a very small market so it gets pushed around a lot.
He wouldn’t touch this at these levels. It has had a huge run, and is trading at a very, very rich valuation. There is a lot of betting that copper and coal prices are going to recover. Coal prices are not very strong and copper prices are okay, but there is a lot of supply that could potentially come on. Zinc prices are really the good news story in this company, but trading at a very, very rich valuation. The whole metals sector has had a huge “short covering” bounce, and it is a high risk trade at this stage of the game.