Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Robert Lauzon commented about whether WSP-T, BTE-T, SPE-T, GRPTY-OTC, CPG-T, BNK-T, CFW-T, ATRL-T, CONA-T, ENB-T, TOU-T, TOG-T, NVA-T, TDG-T, BDT-T, GEI-T, VSN-T, BBD.B-T, CJR.B-T, SJR.B-T, ZPR-T, VRX-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Educational Segment. Why Raising Retirement Age is a Good Idea. A Lawyer and an Actuary penned an article about why it was a bad idea to roll back OAS from 67 to 65. We are all living longer. OAS started in the 1950s and life expectancy was 80. Now if you live to 65 you are likely to live to 85. We will be at 16% young people going forward, but the number of old people will be going up dramatically (16-24%). Governments are inept at dealing with people living longer. The kids are going to pay. Each one owes $38k right now. The US will be out of OAS by 2039 if they don’t change policy.
Preferred Shares Index. Close to 6.5%. The preferred space has been really stressed. Convertible shares protect shareholders in a rising rate environment. However, that has not been the case so there has been low levels of interest in these shares. He has these holdings for clients as a diversification tool.
A speculative play. The government does not want to let them go. You could trade it, but there will be tremendous volatility. They are talking about shipping jobs out of Canada and he does not think the government will continue to put up tax payer money if they do that. Don’t chase it. It is a speculative company.
Markets. It has been a tough 3 or 4 months. A neighbour of his was busy pouring cement for home builds until January and then it just stopped. He thinks this is as bad as it gets right now. In ‘08/09 when the Saudis cut production, Western Canada never laid off employees. Right now it seems like they are doing double the amount of layoffs they should have. April and May will be the inflection point with bankruptcies or acquisitions. You should find companies that trade with debt to cash flow of 3 or lower and cheap multiples are candidates. Acquirers will just get saddled with the debt of others. The market usually prices things in 6 months in advance.
It has been very newsworthy in the last few weeks. The US Government rejected an application for off shore work. The stock had returned to the $8 range. The dividend is too high. If they don’t move Jordan ahead they may choose to cut their dividend and that would be good for the company to do. They are religious on paying down their debt and he thinks they should continue to do that.
We have the least amount of drill rigs in North America in years. Earnings per share in these companies are lowering. Timing is going to be quite tough, but crucial on how it works. It could be the end of the year before boards meet to discuss turning the taps back on. This company has been increasing debt as they make acquisitions.
The company says the financial statements should not be relied upon. They have $31 Billion in debt and the company is worth $9 Billion. 2020 -2022 is where most of the maturities come. You have the overhang of Ackerman holding 9 percent of the stock. The stock could have counter-trend rallies. If Hillary wins there is another consideration around these pharmas in the US. This is a stock for traders not for investing in yet.