DON'T BUY

The company says the financial statements should not be relied upon. They have $31 Billion in debt and the company is worth $9 Billion. 2020 -2022 is where most of the maturities come. You have the overhang of Ackerman holding 9 percent of the stock. The stock could have counter-trend rallies. If Hillary wins there is another consideration around these pharmas in the US. This is a stock for traders not for investing in yet.

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Educational Segment. Why Raising Retirement Age is a Good Idea. A Lawyer and an Actuary penned an article about why it was a bad idea to roll back OAS from 67 to 65. We are all living longer. OAS started in the 1950s and life expectancy was 80. Now if you live to 65 you are likely to live to 85. We will be at 16% young people going forward, but the number of old people will be going up dramatically (16-24%). Governments are inept at dealing with people living longer. The kids are going to pay. Each one owes $38k right now. The US will be out of OAS by 2039 if they don’t change policy.

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Foreign Exchange. He was hedged when investing in the US. He started buying US exposure recently because he thinks oil will peak around the low 40s. This is a technical trade rather than a revaluation. He is positioning with some US exposure while expecting the US$ to drift lower.

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ETF to Track Toronto and Vancouver Real Estate Market in expectation of a bubble. It does not exist. There is not enough of a demand. The closest is within REITs in Canada, but they are varied. There is no way to short Canadian housing except maybe the Canadian Banks.

PARTIAL BUY

Preferred Shares Index. Close to 6.5%. The preferred space has been really stressed. Convertible shares protect shareholders in a rising rate environment. However, that has not been the case so there has been low levels of interest in these shares. He has these holdings for clients as a diversification tool.

COMMENT

SJR.B-T vs. CJR.B-T. He wants to buy a good company when it is relatively cheap. Technically there is some relative value to both.

COMMENT

SJR.B-T vs. CJR.B-T. He wants to buy a good company when it is relatively cheap. Technically there is some relative value to both.

RISKY

A speculative play. The government does not want to let them go. You could trade it, but there will be tremendous volatility. They are talking about shipping jobs out of Canada and he does not think the government will continue to put up tax payer money if they do that. Don’t chase it. It is a speculative company.

HOLD

8% REITs? Not so bad, but at 30% they would all seem to go up and down at the same time. He has 2% REITs at present and he does not see relative value. If you need the yield then REITs are okay. See ZRE-T.

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Markets. It has been a tough 3 or 4 months. A neighbour of his was busy pouring cement for home builds until January and then it just stopped. He thinks this is as bad as it gets right now. In ‘08/09 when the Saudis cut production, Western Canada never laid off employees. Right now it seems like they are doing double the amount of layoffs they should have. April and May will be the inflection point with bankruptcies or acquisitions. You should find companies that trade with debt to cash flow of 3 or lower and cheap multiples are candidates. Acquirers will just get saddled with the debt of others. The market usually prices things in 6 months in advance.

COMMENT

It has been very newsworthy in the last few weeks. The US Government rejected an application for off shore work. The stock had returned to the $8 range. The dividend is too high. If they don’t move Jordan ahead they may choose to cut their dividend and that would be good for the company to do. They are religious on paying down their debt and he thinks they should continue to do that.

BUY

7.2% dividend - just increased. He increased his weighting at that time. He is pretty confident in the resiliency of their earnings. They plan to be a dividend grower. It is sustainable and he likes it here.

BUY

Trudeau has done a good job of guiding the street about infrastructure spending increases. This company should get some of this money.

WAIT

We have the least amount of drill rigs in North America in years. Earnings per share in these companies are lowering. Timing is going to be quite tough, but crucial on how it works. It could be the end of the year before boards meet to discuss turning the taps back on. This company has been increasing debt as they make acquisitions.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Feb 05’15, Down 12.90%) He got about an 8% yield. It has performed quite well, year over year. They have most of their assets in Saskatchewan and the Canadian pension plan is a partner. It should be the end of the axe swinging.