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Oil. There has been a pullback and he sees this as an opportunity. Had felt the energy sector had gotten a little too frothy in April-May, so had taken the cash in his fund up to 34% and was adding some large caps, not the market he usually focuses on. Now deploying cash and is down to 10%, and has been selling his large caps. Oil price is high and the differential between Canadian oil and light oil has been shrinking. Also, the loonie has been falling. Canada is adding “take away capacity” via rail to the US. All of the major issues that investors had challenges with, and the reason they were not investing in energy stocks, have now disappeared. As a consequence there were a bunch of stocks trading at really cheap values. Fundamentals today are the best they have been in 4-5 years. Stocks have had too good of a run. We’ve had a pullback and now is the time to be adding. He is a long-term believer in a high oil price, $100-$110. Many of his Top names that he would hold can grow production by about 20% a year spending 1X cash flow or grow at 10% and pay a 5%-10% dividend yield.

Natural gas. Not as bullish on natural gas as there is a ton of low-cost supply. We have gone from a very bullish to a very bearish scenario in a month. At $4 there is enough plentiful supply in Canada and the US. Areas like the Marcellus shale have grown anywhere from 4 BCF a day to as high as 15-16 PCF, that is the equivalent of being the cheapest in 4 years. That 15 PCF is heading to 30 in the next 4-5 years. When he looks at natural gas names, they have to be very low-cost and preferably have liquids associated with the gas stream because that is where the majority of the economics are derived from.

Sees no reason to own this for at least another 6 to 9 months. At one point, they were the most esteemed management team when it came to heavy the oil, and the stock was as high as $7-$8. They had the ability to fund at the time, because they had 2 projects that required massive, massive funding given their oil sands developments in situ, but they chose not to for reasons that were beyond him. They are now in a situation where they have to sell funds, and that takes longer. Have 3 primary properties. One is flat lining in terms of production so it is difficult to get excited about. The next is Onion Lake where they will have results in the 2^nd half of 2015. On the 3^rd one, they need external funding. Trading at roughly 6.3-6.4 times next year’s cash flow, similar to Spartan (SPE-T), which is actually growing production, internally funded with better economics and balance sheet as well as higher inside ownership.

This is more of a yield play. They IPO’d in Dec/13 at $10.50. Sold his holdings in the mid-$15-$16, feeling that the easy money had been made. They are now essentially a pure play on the Glock where they have drilled 2 wells. Three wells will be released the next time they come out with results in about 3 week’s time. The real upside is that they are under leveraged, and given the real low decline rate of their assets, they are generating a lot of excess free cash flow, which they don’t necessarily want to deploy into their existing play. They are looking at other plays. They have been targeting a 2000 barrels a day acquisition for many, many months. It seems they may be getting closer to achieving that. Given that they are trading at around 7.5-7.8 times enterprise value to cash flow, they’ll likely be able to make an accretive acquisition and have the stock go up. There are other names he would prefer right now.

He has been using $4 natural gas for 2015 for his own modeling, which is proving to be where the futures price is coming down to. This one screens out as a very cheap stock, but unfortunately is somewhat cheap for a reason. Had an asset in the Wilrich, which they sold to Bonavista (BTE-T), and they took the cash and de-levered the balance sheet, which was fine. They were also ramping up CapX very meaningfully. However, when they came out with their pro forma guidance in terms of production, relevant to the increase in CapX, it was overwhelmingly disappointing. Also, there has been a massive turnover in sentiment with respect to natural gas.

Repurchased assets in the Foothills. Stock was a little rich because of the very good management premium. Have been trading at around 7.5X forward cash flow. The long term optimality of a team that is one of the few people left in the country that have experience in driving these types of wells in virgin territory in the foothills, has a strong likelihood of doing well next year. A little expensive. If you are a long-term investor, you can be comfortable in owning this.

Dry natural gas. Sold his holdings last week, based on their announcement that they had purchased assets for $100 million. Thinks people were getting agitated that management was taking so long to make an acquisition. Feels the biggest risk is equity financing coming in. The manager is very conservative. Given that they have a debt to cash flow of around 1.5-1.6 times, he would think the manager would be uncomfortable at that level. If you own and are mildly bullish on natural gas, they have a fairly low cost structure, so hold onto it.

Not the top 1, 2 or 3 in natural gas names, but if you own he thinks you will do fine. They put out an operations update with one really good well. Also, had another that was crappy in terms of liquids yield. He is focusing more on the crummy well because of the variability in geology. Have been deleveraging given the ramp in their cash flows. Part of that was contingent on high natural gas prices, and as gas has sold off, he thinks this thesis is somewhat challenged. Have an offer for their Wapiti asset which would serve to deleverage the balance sheet. There are names he likes better, but sentiment has overshot to the negative.

(A Top Pick July 30/13. Down 1.79%.) Had been on the verge of getting $1.3 billion from a Chinese company, and this is still dragging on. The $1.3 billion is now going to be $1.23 billion. There have also been recent headlines that some Chinese executives that were involved have been arrested. He would rather invest in others. If you own, you could get a gap up if they eventually get the proceeds, which he thinks they will. Continue to Hold.

(A Top Pick July 30/13. Up 92.91%.) There was also a consolidation of 1 for 5. An extremely stable, solid business model. 80% of the cash flow will generate 14%-16% growth. Current dividend of 4%, and he is hoping for an increase. Still undervalued, and as people get more and more comfortable with the story, there will be multiple expansion. Still a Buy.

(A Top Pick July 30/13. Up 33.13%.) His largest holding. A lot of natural gas stocks in the Montney have been unlocking a lot of value by getting better and better at drilling and containing the wells. A lot of this company’s wells are coming on stream at twice what they had budgeted. Thinks this has 40% upside from today’s levels, a $75 stock because their acreage just keeps getting better and better. They keep coming out with new plays. Have 10 years of high-grade inventory.

Drillers tend to be more volatile than producers. People have been buying service companies as a leveraged way to play the increase in natural gas pricing. His concern is that, as natural gas prices have fallen, service names will be weak. Just announced pretty good results. He can see the stock price at $16-$17. He owns some of the smaller companies because they are trading at slightly lower multiples, and can grow a little faster. If you own, Hold into the fall, when it will be very strong for the energy complex in general.

Wouldn’t touch this. Thinks there are long term ongoing issues. Deleveraging by selling off assets. Last quarter was pretty good in terms of capital efficiencies, but when he can invest in so many other names, he doesn’t find this overly compelling.

Has recently been buying this at around $5.50 because had felt it had gone too negative. Won’t be holding it for very long. For a longer-term investor, this is doing just fine. Their production comes on in lumps, so you can wait a quarter or 2 before there is really much to talk about. They should have some exploration down to the southeast of where their properties are now. Have been increasing the productivity of their wells along with all the other Montney producers.

Thinks they raised money at $39.50 to buy Aurora in Texas. In retrospect it was a pretty good transaction. It took a little while for the street to appreciate how much free cash flow that asset will contribute over time. They have to spend a certain amount to maintain production and grow it a little, and all of the excess cash flow from Baytex can either be used to repay debt, which they don’t have a lot of, or they can use it to increase their dividend, or buy other acreage. Sold his holdings because it had regained the multiple it had. There is a new team, so there is a little bit of proving they have to do to the street. Trading at a multiple where people are already baking in extremely good operational success. On a relative valuation basis, he would prefer other names. If you own, it is a steady Eddie name, and you are looking at roughly 10%-12% total return.