DON'T BUY

A stock like this is extremely cyclical. Their customers are also very cyclical. Stock has had a huge run. Bombardier (BBD.B-T) are possibly coming up with the C series, which could take some market share away. You have to look at companies that are not doing well, as opposed to those that have already performed really well.

DON'T BUY

Looked at this over the last 3 years and looked at it again today. The underlying issue with uranium is that the supply should start to decline by around 2020, which is when a lot of the Russian uranium supply will be finished (from the nuclear arms). All the big uranium companies have aggressively been looking for uranium and spending a lot of money on it. On a valuation basis, it is still trading at about 15-16 times earnings so it doesn’t sound extremely cheap. Japanese nuclear reactors have come off stream for the most part. In the short term, he doesn’t see any reason to own this, but if the stock fell because of weakening earnings, you would get an entry point. For a long-term investor, there could be a lot of upside in the next decade or so. He would like to see it at around $15.

DON'T BUY

This is such a cyclical area that you need to get in early and get out early. If anything, he would be exiting companies like this and looking for cheaper value.

BUY

He sees peak earnings for this company in the $2-$3 range, sometime over the next 5 years. Traditionally, when this happens, it starts to trade at 10-15 times earnings and you end up with a huge winner. You have to have the patience to live through zero earnings periods that we are in right now. A lot of high cost production has come off stream so supply is getting constrained. This should push the price of aluminum up. He sees a big bump in earnings coming by 2016.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 11/12. Up 51.04%.) The insurance companies will benefit as the longer-term interest rates continue to rise. They are in their early days. Still sees plenty of upside here.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 11/12. Up 18.61%.) A truly global energy player with huge exploration in Africa in the outlying regions where you have to have the scale to explore. Also, natural gas is much more expensive in Europe than it is in North America and they are a big natural gas player too. Very cheap valuation at about 9X forward earnings. Over 5% dividend.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 11/12. Up 138.43%.) Like so many Japanese companies, they were trading at less than their working capital so you were buying cash at a discount and getting the company for free. Consistently profitable and pays a reasonable dividend.

BUY

Not the old Xerox. More than half the company is in the services business. This is throwing off a lot of free cash flow. Big dividend increase this year by 35%. Buying back a huge amount of shares and have been for the last couple of years. He still sees good upside for this.

COMMENT

At this point, Blackberry the consumer products company, is basically dead. The question is, what are the patents worth and he has no idea.

HOLD

A fabulous bank. Very well run. It’s not so much the mortgage business. The refinancing business is in a rising rate environment and no one is refinancing. This takes a lot of business away from the banks.

COMMENT

Has always been a conundrum for him. A Canadian technology company, which is the best in the world at what they do. The #1 seller of flight simulators globally, and have been for decades. Yet they have never been able to deliver a lot of margin on that business. It has now been morphed into a pilot training business. They are also using their simulation technology for military and, lately for medical. Have struggled to generate good profits margins.

COMMENT

Has toyed with this one himself recently and keeps on asking himself, is now the time. Doesn’t think we are going to have a huge bump in natural gas prices this year, even with a cold winter. There is so much gas around in North America. LNG, which will use up some supply, is not coming around any time soon. Not expensive.

COMMENT

The downturn in the stock price is simply to do with economic issues and the economic outlook. Earnings and revenue growth are slowing down. They are suffering because the demo graphic of their largest customer is not doing as well.

DON'T BUY

Has never owned a gold stock in his career. Gold prices spiked over the last few years with quantitative easing. His view is that as quantitative easing begins to get unwound, he could easily see gold prices falling another $500 or so, back to $800. He is bearish on gold and the gold stocks going forward.

HOLD

Had a big surprise a few months ago when the large Russian potash producer pulled out of their joint marketing venture. Potash has been sold by 2 cartels in the world. The breaking up of the Eastern European cartel is quite negative for potash prices and for this company. They are going to be suffering over the next couple of years. If the earnings truly take a dip next year, he may look at taking some on.