TOP PICK
(His 3 Top Picks will not give you instant gratification, but are to be held for 1, 2, 3 years.) Fabulously run. More efficient and profitable than everybody else. Have 2 headwinds. 1) Biggest product they move is forestry product. 2) Exposed to the US economy because of their US operations.
TOP PICK
(His 3 Top Picks will not give you instant gratification, but are to be held for 1, 2, 3 years.) Affected by the Cdn$ as a lot of their operations are outside of Canada. Also has a lot of natural gas. Montreal refinery has a strike going on. Extremely reasonable valuation. Prospects on a number of their things are extremely promising.
TOP PICK
(His 3 Top Picks will not give you instant gratification, but are to be held for 1, 2, 3 years.) Has been hurt recently because 1) it is not a takeover candidate and 2) a major project, Galore Creek was cancelled because of costs.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Past Top Pick. Dec 5/06. Down 18.3%.) If you own it, Hold. You are getting a decent yield on it. Like all Canadian banks, they will raise her dividends on a regular basis. There could still be another few dollars of downside.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Past Top Pick. Dec 5/06. Down 4.8%.) 5% yield is why he still likes it. All of the bad news is basically known. Sold their consumer products division for $19 billion and will use the cash for acquisitions, share buybacks, dividend increases and increase research. Recession resistant.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Past Top Pick. Dec 5/06. Down 5%.) 4.5% dividend. Prefers the English banks to the US ones. Extremely well run domestic bank. Doesn't have the problems of the other banks but was guilty by association. Still a Buy.
COMMENT
The stock is not trading on the company's fundamentals, but on the cash takeover. Not trading at the takeover price as there is a time value on money and no one is certain when that date will be. Still some regulatory approvals needed.
DON'T BUY
Too early to be buying any major bank stock. US banks will continue to have more write-offs. Has had a very volatile past.
BUY
A mining company based in Brazil that bought Inco. Its 2 main minerals are iron ore and nickel. Iron ore is a phenomenal place to be with the demand coming out of China and India for steel. Prices are only going up. Volatile because it is a metal stock and it is based in Brazil.
BUY
Was mostly a gold stock and then bought Phelps Dodge, almost a pure play copper stock. Copper prices peaked earlier in the year but have come off. Because of demand from the developing world, he doesn't see copper prices dropping off.
BUY
Have 2 main businesses. Oil/gas and a Newfoundland refinery. Earlier in the year, refinery margins where really big, but started to shrink when the summer driving season was over. Because of this and weak natural gas prices, they had to cut their distribution. For long-term investors, 3 to 5 years, this is a very good company. 16.39% yield.
DON'T BUY
An online trader and online trading numbers in the US have come down. This is a very troubled company. For some reason, they got into the mortgage business and have taken a huge bath and some analysts have questioned if they will survive.
DON'T BUY
Used to love this one. This was when they where an independent bank in North Carolina. Was acquired by one of its competitors a few years ago but it no longer has the good quality characteristics.
WAIT
The long-term outlook for this company is fabulous. It is by far the best run public retailer in Canada. Near-term outlook is clouded because of economic weakness in eastern Canada. Their most recent quarter was disappointing and it was Ontario and Quebec. With housing possibly peaking and manufacturing coming down it is probably not the right time to Buy. If you are a long-term investor, wait a little while and then buy.
DON'T BUY
Have 2 headwinds against them 1) execution on basic business in the wireless has not been as good as in the past and 2) with the new spectrum auction coming up, where new entrants will be allowed to bid. Eventually, the drop in the stock will run out of steam and start to pick up again and fundamentals will improve and that's when you want to Buy.