Opinions
Stockchase Insights
Coinbase Global
COIN-Q
HOLD
Aug 01, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Coinbase is at the forefront of developing critical blockchain infrastructure and is really the main and only player in the US crypto space. COIN has helped to begin bridging the gap between the traditional finance world and the crypto network layer. For 2024 COIN aims to focus on driving revenue through improving its core trading and USDC (US dollar stablecoin), driving utility in crypto with experiments in payments using USDC and Base (its layer-2 chain), and drive regulatory clarity of the industry.
It launched a layer-2 network on the Ethereum blockchain called Base, which has seen transaction volume skyrocket over the past month, and it now has $1.5B in total value locked. The company continues to innovate by offering a coinbase smart wallet which allows for easy onboarding and storage of private keys for users. Through certain 'on-chain' metrics, we can see that trading volumes have surged in March 2024, and it is possible that Coinbase will have a strong Q1.
COIN is expecting to report in early May, although the date is not yet confirmed. Overall, as the leading centralized crypto ecosystem company in North America, we like COIN in the current market backdrop.
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Premium contentCoinbase, Inc. is a leading cryptocurrency exchange platform, allowing users to buy, sell, and hold various digital currencies like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and others. Since its founding in 2012, the company has grown significantly, becoming one of the most recognized and reputable names in the cryptocurrency space. Coinbase went public through a direct listing on the NASDAQ in April 2021, which was a notable milestone showcasing its expansion. The company has continued to innovate and expand its services, moving beyond traditional trading to include additional financial services like lending and staking. Social media mentions are up 118.4% in the past 24h.
EPS of 12c missed estimates of $1.30; revenue of $1.49B missed estimates of $1.59B. EBITDA of $512M missed estimates by 16%. Retail trading was much worse than expected. Coinbase might see better 3Q trading revenue after reaching $360 million in July. The company expects higher subscription and services sales at $665-$745 million, driven by growing stablecoin balances. Improving regulations are aiding adoption of digital assets, yet near-term growth could be nonlinear. Product building on Base, expansion of the payment ecosystem, new trading products and bank on-ramps, combined with US regulatory clarity, can aid growth. Core expenses may rise in 3Q, with $800-$850 million for tech and G&A expenses. Sales and marketing could be $190-$290 million, based on guidance. Reported 2Q costs were affected by $307 million related to a data-theft incident. Coinbase also benefited from a $1.5 billion pretax gain on investment in Circle, which will be carried forward at fair value. Revenue rose 3.3%. The outlook is a bit mixed, but the weakness is likely largely reflected in the stock decline today. Shares are up 52% this year so there is a lot of profit-taking on less-than-stellar results. We would not panic here. A crypo currency rally would like see investors forget these results fairly quickly.
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