Opinions by Andrey Omelchak | StockChase
79
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE May 2016

LionGuard Capital Management

79
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE May 2016

LionGuard Capital Management


Opinions by Andrey Omelchak


Signal Opinion Expert Chart
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General Market Comment 

July 27, 2017

Markets.  He is surprised by how low the volatility is on the VIX.  These levels cannot continue going forward.  Investors have to be careful going forward.  Some caution is warranted.  You have to pick your points and not invest in the overall market.  There has been a lot of takeout activity and this is a sign of a toppy market.  It does not mean we have reached the top, however.  The gap between bonds and dividends has narrowed.  Now you take on more risk as you deploy capital in the equity market for dividends.  His fund has a negative view on commodities and he tries to stay away from them.

Markets.  He is surprised by how low the volatility is on the VIX.  These levels cannot continue going forward.  Investors have to be careful going forward.  Some caution is warranted.  You have to pick your points and not invest in the overall market.  There has been a lot of takeout activity and this is a sign of a toppy market.  It does not mean we have reached the top, however.  The gap between bonds and dividends has narrowed.  Now you take on more risk as you deploy capital in the equity market for dividends.  His fund has a negative view on commodities and he tries to stay away from them.

Unknown
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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DON'T BUY
General Market Comment 

July 27, 2017

Investing in resources is very dangerous and you have to make a call on the underlying commodity.  He encourages investors to make investments outside of these sectors.  If it seems too good to be true, then it probably is.

Investing in resources is very dangerous and you have to make a call on the underlying commodity.  He encourages investors to make investments outside of these sectors.  If it seems too good to be true, then it probably is.

Unknown
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
General Market Comment 

July 27, 2017

Oil:  You can bring new supply into the market.  Demand/supply is looking okay because there are all these alternative forms of energy.  Investing in oil over the long term is not viable.

Oil:  You can bring new supply into the market.  Demand/supply is looking okay because there are all these alternative forms of energy.  Investing in oil over the long term is not viable.

Unknown
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
AutoCanada Inc.(ACQ-T) 

July 27, 2017

They are doing a pretty good job of consolidating the auto dealer industry.  They were hit because a lot of them were in Alberta, but they are now going in the right direction.  It is a question of time until the stock price recovers, but he does not think it will hit its previous highs.  Be prepared to hold it for a while.

specialty stores

They are doing a pretty good job of consolidating the auto dealer industry.  They were hit because a lot of them were in Alberta, but they are now going in the right direction.  It is a question of time until the stock price recovers, but he does not think it will hit its previous highs.  Be prepared to hold it for a while.

specialty stores
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$19.970
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Alaris Royalty(AD-T) 

July 27, 2017

A good, solid company.  But a number of investments they made recently are having to be restructured.  The dividend is sustainable, with payout close to 90%. 

Financial Services

A good, solid company.  But a number of investments they made recently are having to be restructured.  The dividend is sustainable, with payout close to 90%. 

Financial Services
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$22.480
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Aimia(AIM-T) 

July 27, 2017

He cautions investors not to invest in AIM-T (Aeroplan) because they have only one customer.  It could be acquired by a company to integrate into other operations, but he thinks that is speculative.

other services

He cautions investors not to invest in AIM-T (Aeroplan) because they have only one customer.  It could be acquired by a company to integrate into other operations, but he thinks that is speculative.

other services
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$1.540
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY

Canadian banks have done tremendously well over the last 10 years.  The regulators are doing a great job of making sure the industry is safe.  Everyone should own banks.  There has not been any big write-downs in the banks recently.  They are firing on all cylinders.  Don’t overpay for them.  BNS-T has international exposures to commodities, which has held them back a bit.

banks

Canadian banks have done tremendously well over the last 10 years.  The regulators are doing a great job of making sure the industry is safe.  Everyone should own banks.  There has not been any big write-downs in the banks recently.  They are firing on all cylinders.  Don’t overpay for them.  BNS-T has international exposures to commodities, which has held them back a bit.

banks
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$77.630
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Chesswood Group(CHW-T) 

July 27, 2017

(Top Pick Feb 24/17, Up 3.56%)  A Top Pick again.  The growth rate remained great and they are a potential take out candidate. 

merchandising/lodging

(Top Pick Feb 24/17, Up 3.56%)  A Top Pick again.  The growth rate remained great and they are a potential take out candidate. 

merchandising/lodging
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$13.100
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Chesswood Group(CHW-T) 

July 27, 2017

Small ticket equipment leasing to US companies.  They have a top management team that can manage risks as well as the company.  It has a 6.7% dividend that is sustainable and could be raised.  They are a prime takeout candidate for major financial services companies.  (Analysts’ target: $15.50).

merchandising/lodging

Small ticket equipment leasing to US companies.  They have a top management team that can manage risks as well as the company.  It has a 6.7% dividend that is sustainable and could be raised.  They are a prime takeout candidate for major financial services companies.  (Analysts’ target: $15.50).

merchandising/lodging
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$13.100
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
DON'T BUY

A healthy dividend yield, but once you adjust for onetime items it is about a 100% payout ratio.  Maybe they will grow into their dividend.  The management has done an okay job to date.  He prefers AD-T.  Be careful until they fix the problems with their payout ratio.

other services

A healthy dividend yield, but once you adjust for onetime items it is about a 100% payout ratio.  Maybe they will grow into their dividend.  The management has done an okay job to date.  He prefers AD-T.  Be careful until they fix the problems with their payout ratio.

other services
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$2.380
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
BUY

They did a great job in growing their business.  They make their installation in a fast, eco-friendly way.  A really innovative technology company.  He sees a pickup in the hospital area.  It’s just a matter of time until the stock price improves.

They did a great job in growing their business.  They make their installation in a fast, eco-friendly way.  A really innovative technology company.  He sees a pickup in the hospital area.  It’s just a matter of time until the stock price improves.

0
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$5.980
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
Firstservice Corp(FSV-T) 

July 27, 2017

You are better off holding on to this stock.  It is highly unlikely it will correct to its past lows.  What they are doing is very smart and very interesting.  They are adding a lot of value to their clients.  They generate predictable and consistent cash flow.

other services

You are better off holding on to this stock.  It is highly unlikely it will correct to its past lows.  What they are doing is very smart and very interesting.  They are adding a lot of value to their clients.  They generate predictable and consistent cash flow.

other services
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$83.350
Owned Owned
Unknown

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TOP PICK

They are growing organically very nicely and making accretive acquisitions as well.  They have a record backlog right now that will translate into results next year and they expect their margin to increase after the most recent integration is complete.  (Analysts’ target: $5.28).

They are growing organically very nicely and making accretive acquisitions as well.  They have a record backlog right now that will translate into results next year and they expect their margin to increase after the most recent integration is complete.  (Analysts’ target: $5.28).

0
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$3.990
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
WEAK BUY
Hudson Bay Co.(HBC-T) 

July 27, 2017

You have to get your head around the value of their real estate.  The whole retail space is under tremendous pressure.  It is just a question of when they are going to unlock those assets.

department stores

You have to get your head around the value of their real estate.  The whole retail space is under tremendous pressure.  It is just a question of when they are going to unlock those assets.

department stores
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$10.770
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
BUY on WEAKNESS

He believes the bad news is in the equation.  Warren Buffet has come in and provided capital for them to deploy into mortgages and this has really improved their situation.  The worst is behind them.

investment companies/funds

He believes the bad news is in the equation.  Warren Buffet has come in and provided capital for them to deploy into mortgages and this has really improved their situation.  The worst is behind them.

investment companies/funds
Andrey Omelchak

President & CIO, LionGuard Capital Ma...

PricePrice
$14.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

Must be logged in to use chart
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