ECN Capital (ECN-T)

ECN is, at least, up 58% in the past year (down 16% YTD). Considering its economic exposure and small size, its decline is not really out of line with others. That being said, it is hard to be too bullish here. Consumers are not very likely to finance big-ticket discretionary items in the current economic scenario. The stock is cheap but we doubt it does much at all this year. A lesson might be: 'don't give out all your cash'. ECN would be in much better shape and able to buy growth if it had kept its billion+ dollars it paid out to shareholders in late 2021. We would not miss it if sold. 
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National Bank has made ECN a Top 2025 pick. The company has a high degree of leverage to interest rates and the economy. If rates decline and the economy holds up, it certainly could do well. Consensus calls for 75% growth in 2025. We think it can be owned, but it is a small company and higher risk. 
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EPS of 5c beat estimates of 4.3c; revenue of $66M beat estimates of $61M. New originations were $625.7M vs $571M last year. Guidance was afffirmed for 2024 but boosted for 2025 (19c to 25c vs 18c estimated). The company has streamlined its cost structure and is benefitting somewhat from lower rates. It was a good quarter. Still, we would rate it a HOLD for now after the move. 
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EPS $0.008; revenue $47.6M. We would like to hold at least until we rates decline, so we can see how the business/stock performs in a different rate environment.
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There is not really a lot to add. There has been no news in about a month. Some insiders were granted performance units but no significant buying (we would expect insiders are restricted while the review is ongoing). Typically, catalysts would be earnings and acquisitions. Earnings have been weak, and there may (or not) be acquisition discussions as part of the review. But likely not a lot of catalyst action before the review. Lower interest rates 'should' help sentiment a lot. Consumers (the end customer) remains in generally good shape, with high employment. We would be OK owning some at current levels. Expectations are very low here, but management has pulled rabbits out of hats before. 
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We still think it is interesting as speculative buy but would not add. We have additional comments posted this morning.
Insiders own 9% directly and 14% via holding companies.
Through third parties, ECN originates prime and super-prime consumer loans for housing and RV purchases as well as for inventory financing and floorplan loans.
With concern on recession and higher interest rates, demand for such loans saw a significant drop in the quarter.
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Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. They announced a special dividend of $7.50. The stock should have moved more on this news. Shares can be bought for the dividend here. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The stock is still very cheap on all metrics. Considering growth perspectives, current book value and earnings power, it is attractively priced. It also has a strong record of dividend increases. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

The company is in transition to get away from taking on direct interest rate risk. He really likes the valuation and it trades below book value. They need to do another acquisition, report faster revenue growth or increase the dividend to really get things going – and he thinks one of those will happen this year.

He held it in the past. It trades at around 0.9 times book ($4.40). They are selling down divisions at or above book. They have a lot of acquisitions but deals are not as cheap as they were. He prefers EFN-T.

Steve Hudson is an entrepreneur who has grown and sold companies before. This is trading below its NAV, and is buying back stock. They had an investor presentation this week basically saying look for the 1st quarter to be pretty exciting in terms of acquisitions. They’ve made some acquisitions and dispositions. Has a great balance sheet. Thinks they will be very, very active. A leasing/finance company with low interest rates in a strong economy, trading below its asset value. A pretty safe bet for the next year. Dividend yield of 1%. (Analysts' price target is $5.00.)

It was a spinoff of Element Financial. He buys when it dips below $4. They are getting into lending for home renovations. They are quite undervalued. It remains to be seen how fast they can grow the company from here. There is some good long term value creation in the name.