Stockchase Opinions

Jon Vialoux A W Food Services of Canada IncInstrument Symbol AW-T PAST TOP PICK Mar 09, 2020

(A Top Pick Dec 04/19, Down 15%) Any consumer stocks are terrible now. Don't buy then. However, now is seasonality, and the high dividends are attractive during volatile times. This failed to act as his hedge during volatility which upsetted him.
$31.630

Stock price when the opinion was issued

food services
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BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Negative sales growth, but improving. Distribution on path to being restored. Larger base of stores for recovery. Share fairly valued with attractive yield.
BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

AW.UN is now trading at 16x times' P/E. In the 2Q, AW.UN’s royalty income grew 4.8% to $12.8M compared to last year of $12.2M and same-store sales growth remains positive at 2.5%. Distributable cash per unit grew slightly 3.5% to $0.497, compared to last year of $0.48. The balance sheet is okay, with net debt of $35M. Total debt is around 1.3x times trailing twelve-month cash flow of $27M. AW.UN’s growth is quite resilient, the company has demonstrated pricing power in inflationary periods in recent years to maintain profit margins.

Compared to the industry, AW.UN is quite attractive, trading at only 16x, with consistently positive same-store sales growth and store openings. Unlike other restaurants, AW.UN did not make any recent acquisitions, and most of the earnings are paid out as distributions. We expect the company will continue to raise distributions due to the resilience in the franchise and its track record of value creation.
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BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

AW.UN is a fundamentally strong fund, and is primarily an income stock. It has a yield of 5.8%, has grown its distributions by 3% annually over the past 10 years, and is reasonably valued at these levels. We feel that investors have opted to purchase 'risk-free' cash investments that have a similar yield to AW.UN, but much less risk given the changing interest rate environment. Although, we don't believe that this trend will last forever, and AW.UN has more upside potential than money market funds. For an investor looking for yield and a stable cashflow-generating business, we like AW.UN here and feel that it's at a good valuation today. 
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COMMENT

It has a yield of 5.9% which is safe. It is not growthy enough for him since he is looking for 20% growth per year. However it is a steady company with a decent chart

HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

The main concerns are related to same store sales growth slowing, but still remains positive over the last year. The general economic environment in 2023 also impacted results and were a concern, but improvements in the future here should help. Number of restaurants in the royalty pool was also flat in the fourth quarter. Debt load is still very manageable and we are not too concered on that front. 
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Unspecified

It executes well, pays out most of its earnings and is still opening U.S. restaurants. It is not a growth stock - MTY Foods is better for this in the sector.

Unspecified

It is more attractive with the re-structuring which gives it more liquidity. He is cautious on the consumer space in a slowing economy. There is a broader consumer issue bubbling below the surface and he will watch how it plays out.

PARTIAL BUY

Growing quickly, but not investing at this time. Good yield, but not major capital appreciation. However, ~5% dividend yield is safe. 

TOP PICK

Successful, stable. Company structure now brings operating and royalty businesses together. Owns national rights to Pret a Manger. Topline growth of 5%, and bottom line growth of 10%. Big transition in shareholder base from royalty stream holders; now more risk, but more upside. Private equity plus former management still owns 60%, so incentivized to create value. Yield is 4.5%.

(Analysts’ price target is $38.00)
HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

AW is relatively small, but we like it well enough. It has operated very well in differing economies, raised its dividend over time, and maintained its market share. However, we would view it far more as an income stock and not one of particularly high growth. Because of its high dividend, less money is available for growth initiatives, and the industry itself is not one of high growth. But we would view it as a small cap buy for income.
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