Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA | StockChase
2458
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jul 2002

ETF Capital Management Inc.
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860Toronto, ONM2N 6L9
T: 888-383-9753 F: 888-383-9753
www.etfcm.com

2458
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jul 2002

ETF Capital Management Inc.
5160 Yonge St. Suite 1860Toronto, ONM2N 6L9
T: 888-383-9753 F: 888-383-9753
www.etfcm.com


Opinions by Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA


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General Market Comment 

December 11, 2017

Market.  Bitcoin futures.  The initial expectations were that you would see bears start to raid it and sell it aggressively.  In fact it seemed to go the other way.  When you look at the volume of a futures contract, we don’t know the amount of open interest.  It may be the same people trading them back and forth and back and forth.  He would wait to see the liquidity and the depth of the market before stepping into it.  Larry prefers Gold to Bitcoin as Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. 

He thinks there is a good chance Trump will break NAFTA.

Market.  Bitcoin futures.  The initial expectations were that you would see bears start to raid it and sell it aggressively.  In fact it seemed to go the other way.  When you look at the volume of a futures contract, we don’t know the amount of open interest.  It may be the same people trading them back and forth and back and forth.  He would wait to see the liquidity and the depth of the market before stepping into it.  Larry prefers Gold to Bitcoin as Bitcoin has no intrinsic value. 

He thinks there is a good chance Trump will break NAFTA.

Unknown
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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DON'T BUY
General Market Comment 

December 11, 2017

Bitcoin Options.  The underlying volatility is massive.  The puts and call premiums are going to be huge.  He does not believe there is an underlying derivatives market.  It is not a mature market.

Bitcoin Options.  The underlying volatility is massive.  The puts and call premiums are going to be huge.  He does not believe there is an underlying derivatives market.  It is not a mature market.

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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BUY
General Market Comment 

December 11, 2017

Gold.  He is a value investor and has been nibbling away on gold.  Don’t make it all of your portfolio.  See his educational segment.

Gold.  He is a value investor and has been nibbling away on gold.  Don’t make it all of your portfolio.  See his educational segment.

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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General Market Comment 

December 11, 2017

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin vs. Gold.  Bitcoin was seen as possibly a gold disrupter.  The biggest cost of investing is the volatility in order to take the position.  Is Bitcoin appropriate?  He thinks it is a bubble that will break because it is worth nothing.  If you want to add it to your portfolio you have to understand if it will help you or hurt you.  Gold does not do the same thing as equities do.  It gives you a diversifying effect.  If you adjust it for risk and then compare to Bitcoin, there is a daily volatility to Bitcoin of 10% and so it is hard to add this to your portfolio and improve your chances of an increase to its return.  If you can stomach the ups and down, then maybe Bitcoin is appropriate for you.  He thinks Bitcoin is close to zero in value and it is just a bubble.  Block chain is a different story and has no relation to an investment in Bitcoin.  Don’t trade futures in Bitcoin because of the leverage.  Leave it to the professionals.

Educational Segment.  Bitcoin vs. Gold.  Bitcoin was seen as possibly a gold disrupter.  The biggest cost of investing is the volatility in order to take the position.  Is Bitcoin appropriate?  He thinks it is a bubble that will break because it is worth nothing.  If you want to add it to your portfolio you have to understand if it will help you or hurt you.  Gold does not do the same thing as equities do.  It gives you a diversifying effect.  If you adjust it for risk and then compare to Bitcoin, there is a daily volatility to Bitcoin of 10% and so it is hard to add this to your portfolio and improve your chances of an increase to its return.  If you can stomach the ups and down, then maybe Bitcoin is appropriate for you.  He thinks Bitcoin is close to zero in value and it is just a bubble.  Block chain is a different story and has no relation to an investment in Bitcoin.  Don’t trade futures in Bitcoin because of the leverage.  Leave it to the professionals.

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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BUY on WEAKNESS
Alerian MLP ETF(AMLP-N) 

December 11, 2017

It is not unlike a REIT but for pipelines in the US.  They put it into this MLP structure.  It is a basket of pipeline stocks.  The revenue gets passed on to the shareholder.  It is not a Canadian dividend, however, so not taxed the same way.  He thinks you are in a trading range environment now.  He has been buying on weakness.

E.T.F.'s

It is not unlike a REIT but for pipelines in the US.  They put it into this MLP structure.  It is a basket of pipeline stocks.  The revenue gets passed on to the shareholder.  It is not a Canadian dividend, however, so not taxed the same way.  He thinks you are in a trading range environment now.  He has been buying on weakness.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$10.640
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BUY on WEAKNESS
Goldcorp Inc(G-T) 

December 11, 2017

They will do what the underlying commodity does.  It is a bit of an opportunity here.  It is starting to get a lot more interesting here.  It could fall another 10-15% if gold keeps going down.  He is nibbling way here, however.

precious metals

They will do what the underlying commodity does.  It is a bit of an opportunity here.  It is starting to get a lot more interesting here.  It could fall another 10-15% if gold keeps going down.  He is nibbling way here, however.

precious metals
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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$15.210
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COMMENT
Microsoft(MSFT-Q) 

December 11, 2017

Buying back shares will be part of what to do with all that money.  He does not think that repatriating cash will cause a CEO to pay his employees more.  He does not think that repatriating capital will have the impact on the US economy that the government thinks it will.

computer software/processing

Buying back shares will be part of what to do with all that money.  He does not think that repatriating cash will cause a CEO to pay his employees more.  He does not think that repatriating capital will have the impact on the US economy that the government thinks it will.

computer software/processing
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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HOLD

It contains some of the best quality companies in the US.  BMO write puts 15-20% below the market price.  They generate additional income from the puts.  Every month if the markets don’t fall to those prices, then they harvest the income on those puts.  BMO does not want to own the stocks so if necessary they buy the option and re-write the put.  He expects 6-7% from it.  If it is not working out the way you hoped, pricewise, then you have to ask if you can take the asset and put it somewhere else.  This ETF won’t grow in price.

E.T.F.'s

It contains some of the best quality companies in the US.  BMO write puts 15-20% below the market price.  They generate additional income from the puts.  Every month if the markets don’t fall to those prices, then they harvest the income on those puts.  BMO does not want to own the stocks so if necessary they buy the option and re-write the put.  He expects 6-7% from it.  If it is not working out the way you hoped, pricewise, then you have to ask if you can take the asset and put it somewhere else.  This ETF won’t grow in price.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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COMMENT

The dividend paying stocks average about 4% in dividends.  The premium above that is coming from the covered call strategy and there is no return of capital in that model.  There are capital distributions from mergers and acquisitions only.  There is a high correlation to financials in Canada.  It is kind of like the weighting of the TSX.

E.T.F.'s

The dividend paying stocks average about 4% in dividends.  The premium above that is coming from the covered call strategy and there is no return of capital in that model.  There are capital distributions from mergers and acquisitions only.  There is a high correlation to financials in Canada.  It is kind of like the weighting of the TSX.

E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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General Market Comment 

December 4, 2017

Market.  The risk of uncertainty in the white house is going to matter at some point.  What matters now is the tax bill.  We are getting the follow through pop today in the markets.  We expect the president to sign the tax bill in by Christmas and then we get a sell-the-news effect.  There is an awful lot of good news priced into the market.

Market.  The risk of uncertainty in the white house is going to matter at some point.  What matters now is the tax bill.  We are getting the follow through pop today in the markets.  We expect the president to sign the tax bill in by Christmas and then we get a sell-the-news effect.  There is an awful lot of good news priced into the market.

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General Market Comment 

December 4, 2017

ETF Return of Capital.  There are two types:  (1) they need to pay out a dividend on funds that recently came into the fund, so all unit holders get the same distribution.  This is a good return of capital.  (2) The underlying assets may pay a lower dividend than the ETF does, so they pay you back some of the capital gain.  This is not a good return of capital.

ETF Return of Capital.  There are two types:  (1) they need to pay out a dividend on funds that recently came into the fund, so all unit holders get the same distribution.  This is a good return of capital.  (2) The underlying assets may pay a lower dividend than the ETF does, so they pay you back some of the capital gain.  This is not a good return of capital.

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WATCH
General Market Comment 

December 4, 2017

Robotics ETFs.  ROBO-N & BOTZ-N.  These play the companies that build robots and create the artificial intelligence.  In Canada we have MIND-T which is artificial intelligence for stock selection.  He would wait for the markets to shake out in a bear market before getting in.

Robotics ETFs.  ROBO-N & BOTZ-N.  These play the companies that build robots and create the artificial intelligence.  In Canada we have MIND-T which is artificial intelligence for stock selection.  He would wait for the markets to shake out in a bear market before getting in.

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General Market Comment 

December 4, 2017

US Dollar investments.  SHV-N is a money market fund for storing US$ in. 

US Dollar investments.  SHV-N is a money market fund for storing US$ in. 

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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General Market Comment 

December 4, 2017

OIL ETFs.  His most aggressive strategy is a long short strategy.  He is net short crude oil via a US ETF.  He is long the Equity side.  He likes US pipelines is the US.

OIL ETFs.  His most aggressive strategy is a long short strategy.  He is net short crude oil via a US ETF.  He is long the Equity side.  He likes US pipelines is the US.

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Manageme...

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General Market Comment 

December 4, 2017

Educational Segment.  Are all the benefits of a tax reform package in the US priced into the US market?  He does not think this tax bill will help the people who voted for Trump.  After the 10 years are up, the top 1 and 0.1% income earners will get the benefits of this package.  The rest get almost nothing.  Trailing earnings and expected earnings for the S&P will increase 20% and 10% per year in earnings growth after the package.  There is a lot of good news priced into the market today.  There will be a sell-the-news effect when it is signed.  See his blog entry for today.

Educational Segment.  Are all the benefits of a tax reform package in the US priced into the US market?  He does not think this tax bill will help the people who voted for Trump.  After the 10 years are up, the top 1 and 0.1% income earners will get the benefits of this package.  The rest get almost nothing.  Trailing earnings and expected earnings for the S&P will increase 20% and 10% per year in earnings growth after the package.  There is a lot of good news priced into the market today.  There will be a sell-the-news effect when it is signed.  See his blog entry for today.

Unknown
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1 Comment

raziel

April 3rd 2015 at 5:48am

My preferrers have come down substantially as a result of lowered bank rates, I believe. Shouldn't an instrument with a fixed rate go UP when bank rates are lowered?


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