Newmont Mining (US) (NEM-N)

NEM/NGT is continuing to struggle with costs, which is impacting profit growth. The Newcrest acquisition is so far not working out well. EPS of 81c missed estimates of 85c. Revenue of $4.6B missed estimates of $4.69B. Newmont's adjusted Ebitda may rise by almost 30% to just over $2.5 billion amid a strong 4Q operational performance, gold output guidance of 1.8 million ounces, 7% higher vs. 3Q, and a rally in gold to more than $2,700 an ounce. This could restore some market sentiment after a disappointing 3Q and muted 2025 outlook. Contracted labor cost inflation offset synergy benefits and operational stability at some of the acquired assets, Lihir, BruceJack and Cadia, may take a bit longer to achieve vs. management's initial expectations. Cash proceeds of $1.1 billion from asset disposals, along with strong operating cashflows, may see net debt decline below $5 billion, giving the company plenty of scope to continue its share-buyback program. The company is not our favourite, and has 'screwed up' before. But it is priced well and EPS is still expected. With some better cost management it can get back on track. With the stock down sharply this week we would rate it a HOLD now, with a view to watch performance over the next six months. Still, we would be fine upon a bounce to switch it for AEM, WPM or FNV. 
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Gold is at all-time highs. Producers have prolific cashflows. Safe way to get operating leverage inherent in a producer. Biggest gold producer in the world. Most mines are in geopolitically safe locations. Only gold producer in the S&P 500, so it's the go-to name. Conservatively financed, BBB+ credit. Big share buybacks. Non-core asset divestiture. Yield is 1.8%.

He doesn't invest in gold stocks. Only 8% of gold is used in industrial products.

Bought it because he expects gold to break-out. He could be wrong. He doesn't buy many commodities. This business is managed well.

Likes it, but buy Barrick instead. The gold stocks as a whole are hot.

The USD and gold price The debt clock in Times Square will hit $30 trillion in a couple weeks. If you can't get bearish on the USD with that, he doesn't what will. He was wrong--he thought the USD would continue to slide since last fall into this spring, but it's obviously bounce--but the bounce is temporary, he thinks. The dollar will continue to fall, which will benefit metals. He didn't think gold would fall down here, either, but at least gold has held the low of June 2020. In this space, Newmont around $57 off last summer's $70 looks interesting.