Pinecrest Energy (PRY-X)

(Market Call Minute) Declining production and increasing debt to cash flow. Didn’t live up to expectations of water flooding and is on death watch.

Strong concerns. Reservoir has high declines. They hoped to do water flood, but it did not meet management expectations or those of the street. Production is falling. He is not interested.

There is upside, but they have been a serial disappointer. Not what he invests in. He prefers PPY-T. Thinks PPY will sell of some assets and become even more of a pure play.

Thinks operating pressures are coming to bear on this poor little enterprise. There is not a lot of downside left. There are better alternatives.

Faced some challenges this year. Recently cut CapX program pretty significantly. This was a high growth company so subsequently had high declines. Struggled on the drilling side where they over capitalized on one area. Production is falling and debt to cash flow has ballooned from almost 0 to 1.7-1.8 times. Feels they can maintain flat production by using all their cash flow. They require further success through water flooding. There is promise in the stock long-term.

Has been under stress because production has fallen and they are relying on their water floods to kick in further. Their reservoirs are very low energy so management has learned that they have to implement a water flood sooner than they had in the past. While they are waiting, production is falling and costs are creeping up.

A small cap. They have decline rates on their wells of 60-70%. It is a great package of assets for a bigger company but when you are small there is not much room for another 10 wells. They were supposed to do a merger and that got unraveled. One of the cheapest stocks in Canada but they need to find someone with a bigger pocket book to JV with.

Has a tight oil asset in northern Alberta. A lot of things have gone wrong for the company in the last couple of years. As a tight oil company they faced high declines and their access to capital is basically nil. Late last year they tried an odd transaction to put themselves together with Spartan and he was very opposed to that merger. There is some value here but he wouldn’t be surprised if the board wasn’t proposing strategic alternatives.

Future is kind of murky on this one. This is a pure play, Slave Point, small cap producer that has really struggled with Slave Point. It has been a much more challenging play than expected. Doesn’t know how they get out of the spiral that they are in.

The spurned bride at the altar. Unfortunately Bonterra (BNE-T) stepped up and did the deal with Sparton (SPA-N). This company has an excellent management team but unfortunately the market has fallen out of love with water flood projects that are embedded in their asset base. He is waiting to see how the market sorts out the relative underperformance of the water flood issues. He would like to own at a lower price.

Pretty concentrated asset base, winter access only. Fought against fairly high decline rates. They are still trying to institute the water flood and we are starting to see some positive results. At the end of the day he expects it to work.

This name got clobbered. He quite likes them. There was a failed merger with Spartan and this company got a $12-$14 million kiss goodbye. Have phenomenal upside in water flood projects across their asset base. Also, on the projects they are implementing, they are finding that the turnaround time from implementing the flood to actually getting production responses, is measured in days, not in months or years. Exceptional value.

(Market Call Minute.) Been a bit of a disaster. Started buying for the 1^st time at about $1.10. Very cheap on a reserve value on production basis. May miss their Q but thinks the stock is pretty bombed out.

Acquisition fell through but they gained $12 million in cash. The challenge is that they are a single asset company that is reliant on a fairly short drilling time. They are going to be entering into breakup in about 3 months. The stock is in freefall and is now in the value territory. The challenge with a cheap stock is that it can always become cheaper.

Excellent entry point. Slave Lake area. Light oil and producing about 4000 barrels a day, but more importantly they were about to merge with Spartan Oil (STO-T) before Bonterra (BNE-T) took out Spartan so they were able to pocket a nice break fee of about $15 million. Could easily see it at $2 in 12 months.