Stock price when the opinion was issued
The spurned bride at the altar. Unfortunately Bonterra (BNE-T) stepped up and did the deal with Sparton (SPA-N). This company has an excellent management team but unfortunately the market has fallen out of love with water flood projects that are embedded in their asset base. He is waiting to see how the market sorts out the relative underperformance of the water flood issues. He would like to own at a lower price.
Has a tight oil asset in northern Alberta. A lot of things have gone wrong for the company in the last couple of years. As a tight oil company they faced high declines and their access to capital is basically nil. Late last year they tried an odd transaction to put themselves together with Spartan and he was very opposed to that merger. There is some value here but he wouldn’t be surprised if the board wasn’t proposing strategic alternatives.
A small cap. They have decline rates on their wells of 60-70%. It is a great package of assets for a bigger company but when you are small there is not much room for another 10 wells. They were supposed to do a merger and that got unraveled. One of the cheapest stocks in Canada but they need to find someone with a bigger pocket book to JV with.
Has been under stress because production has fallen and they are relying on their water floods to kick in further. Their reservoirs are very low energy so management has learned that they have to implement a water flood sooner than they had in the past. While they are waiting, production is falling and costs are creeping up.
Faced some challenges this year. Recently cut CapX program pretty significantly. This was a high growth company so subsequently had high declines. Struggled on the drilling side where they over capitalized on one area. Production is falling and debt to cash flow has ballooned from almost 0 to 1.7-1.8 times. Feels they can maintain flat production by using all their cash flow. They require further success through water flooding. There is promise in the stock long-term.