It is a play on the US economy.  The US economy is doing quite well.  This is their busy time.  You are trying to get in before all the other investors.  Get out about December 8^th.

(A Top Pick Sept 27/17, up 1%). The largest small parcel company in the world. Amazon will not crush them. They have large economies of scale. Amazon needs UPS and FedEx. Is cheap at 14X next year’s earnings and thinks it is going higher.

He has viewed this a good indicator of the economy – especially consumer goods. Amazon has decided UPS could not meet peak delivery demand and has decided to invest in their own distribution network. They will still survive.

The world's largest package document/delivery company. A clear beneficiary of what is happening with everybody's purchasing behaviour. Produces a lot of free cash flow. Dividend yield 2.5%. (Analysts' price target is $130.)

Has avoided this, but can see why people are interested. There is the view that the post office is going to have to raise package delivery prices. However, the discussion that is important is the complete change in logistics Amazon has created. Feels this and Federal Express are organized around the idea of hubs and moving distribution through central hubs. Amazon is arranged completely differently, building warehouses in large cities. He sees incentives for retailers going directly to consumers to try to take the line away from companies, and try to turn it into a local P&D business.

This is their busy time.  It is not as compelling now.  Their peak date is in a few days.  Their seasonal hiring may be a little bit less this year.  They get surges and try to deal with it by charging higher rates.  It could lead to higher costs also.  Between now and Christmas if there is no bad weather the company could do well.  It all has to do with how they deal with the surge in business.  At some point Ecommerce growth will slow.  At the current valuation it is not as compelling as at lower levels.