A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Last week, the FOMC had an update of the dot plots (where the FOMC feels interest rates are going). A few Fed members believe the Fed won't cut any more rates this year, but the consensus remains of 2 cuts. For 2026: a few who predicted more cuts next year now feel there will be fewer, worried about inflation, stickier because of tariffs. Higher for longer. The average rate on US treasuries will rise from 3.36% now to 3.5%-3.7% to fund all that debt that Trump's bill will create when it is eventually signed in July.

Hasn't really noticed any new trends from the Iran-Israeli situation. The trade issues with the US and the rest of the world have been the biggest cause of the decline that started in February down to April. We've seen a big rebound in the markets, with a lot of money going back in. Perhaps people regretted selling.

We're at the top now, pretty close to where we were at the peak earlier in the year. Where we go from here will be determined by how some of the geopolitical and trade issues are resolved. It'll be very important to watch.

In technical analysis, there's a pattern called the double top. A chart will hit a top, pull back, and then hit another top. People are deciding whether or not they're going to buy.

People are going to be looking at earnings, rather than at geopolitical and trade events. Not known yet how those events will affect the economy. Second quarter results will be coming out in the next few weeks to a month. Those will drive markets one way or the other. If you have cash to deploy into the market, he'd wait to see if we break that 6050 or so level on the S&P.

Technical analysts don't predict. They look at the patterns and trade them. He has about 15% cash in his diversified NA portfolio. If markets maintain or break above the resistance level, he'll invest. If markets decline, he'll raise more cash.

Lots of pessimism. Beyond the markets, people are pessimistic because of what's going on in the US. People are thinking about how they don't want to go south of the border for travel. Investors are surprised to learn that their portfolios are more or less where they were at the beginning of the year. They're aware of the decline, but not of the rally.

It's interesting to see how market's have recovered. He's a bit surprised to see that last month was a very strong month, driven mainly by a lot of the tech names we see at the top of the S&P 500. 

Markets have done well, but a big decision point coming. We're now at a big resistance point. If we can break above that, we should continue on for the rest of the year.

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Yes, we had confirmation yesterday through the Fed meeting. When they released their comments, they used really aggressive language in terms of what they were expecting. We're a few months into tariffs, and we haven't seen any inflation yet, but it's in the pipeline.

Different estimates he's been reading indicate that it could take anywhere from 12-18 months for tariffs to be fully reflected in prices. It's expected to be quite severe. Along with unemployment, inflation is front and centre when it comes to the Fed moving on rates.

Consumers and businesses have been relying on credit to drive economic growth. More and more, over time, it's the stock market that's been a crucial factor in driving consumption. In view of the less-than-rosy economic backdrop, for markets to be where they are is a little bit surprising.

That's what people need to keep in mind. There is potential for some downward volatility.

It's a good habit to focus on companies that can control their own destiny on financing. Use the volatility that can come up in the market in your favour. From time to time, when markets are going to be very volatile, really good companies will sell off. It helps to know ahead of time what you might like to buy.

He tends to focus on cashflow. Companies that can generate good cashflow, and with strong balance sheets, have a lot of options in tough markets.

Yes, they have had a boost. Then they'll have to deploy capital to capture the trend. 

For Canadian-centric income stocks (utilities, telecoms, banks), our economy is not as strong as the US. More likely that BOC will be lowering interest rates. This would mean that the competition between these income stocks and bond yields gets tighter, tending to drive money into these income stocks. In that case, valuations could still go higher.

His funds were down around 15-20% only 2 months ago, but now are up 2-3%. Everyone took their eyes off AI and focused on tariffs. And now it's returned to AI. Heavy spending on AI has continued without a decrease. Last year was capex spending by the hyperscalers on modeling (large language models), and this year it's on the applications.

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Oil: There's no way knowing if oil can stay above $70; the oil price is tough to peg. It is a risk asset that responds to geopolitical tension, but after this tension in the Middle East the price will probably not all down, but find balance and this issue will become a non-topic. He wouldn't be surprised to see oil a little higher by year's end. Cash levels: remain high as investor sentiment remains cautious. April remains in the memory, and caution is a good thing for the market. The time to worry is when people are super optimistic. He'd like to see this money bleed into the market as optimism improves. US Midterms: He expects Trump to be less unpredictable and less chaotic because the Republicans need to maintain their power which will be investor-friendly.

Hold 7-8 sectors out of 11, diverse industries and roughly 20-25 companies (in his standard portfolio). Watch for overweighting by a single stock, no more than 8%.

A broad topic. Defensive means predictability: utilities, consumer staples. Stocks that pay dividends and/or buyback shares. Also, telcos. Utilities are super defensive, because they basically issue a yield. Also, do you want that income stream coming from Canada or the U.S., considering taxes.