A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Market. Donald Trump is usually better for business. Business has been restrained for 8 years by regulations. There was a major break out in the US$. For the last 3-4 years, Brian has been pounding the table for the US$, saying that we were going to have a Ronald Reagan rally. The US$ Index under Ronald Reagan went from about 80 to 160 against world currencies. Under Donald Trump, he sees it easily going to 160 from their current amount of about 100 over the next 4-7 years. We are only in the first inning of interest rates going up, and if Trump is true to his word, expect a big bear market in fixed income, and a big rally in the US$ and in US assets, including equities.

Gold. Thinks gold is going down to $400 an ounce, because of higher interest rates and a higher US$ and anything that is detrimental to gold. Looking at a time frame of 3 to 5 years, the Congressional Budget Office is forecasting fiscal spending of $5.3 trillion over the next 10 years. That breaks down to the US government growing the economy 2% per year during that time. That is the US government and doesn’t include the private economy.

Energy. Christmas came early with the November 30 announcement that OPEC had struck a deal. He hadn’t seen this happening. There was a tremendous amount of pessimism going into the November 30 meeting. Even the most bullish forecasters were starting to doubt that something would happen. We had a $6 rally in crude prices. Now it comes down to whether or not members will actually stick to these targets. They also have 600,000 barrels from non-OPEC producers, committed to be taken off the market. Half of that is Russia, and Russia has a terrible track record of keeping their word. Even though the deal was not expected, there were still signposts that suggested the market was going to balance itself at some point in 2017. This deal has effectively accelerated the point at which the markets balance, and can start working through these high inventory levels around the world. OPEC is now producing about 34.2 million barrels a day, and that is up substantially in the last couple of months. He thinks that with this impending deal, there was a race to get production up because producers probably knew that at some point, if the deal was going to be arrived at, it would be based on where their production had been most recently. We don’t need oil prices to get back to $80-$90-$100 for North American companies to really make healthy returns. He looked at some of the individual well economics of Canadian producers at $90 Cdn per barrel. They are generating approximately the same rates of return at $60 Cdn. Currently, we are now more of $70 Cdn, so there are a lot of very investable companies in Canada and North America at these price levels.

Markets. This is the best time for performance for the TSX and the S&P. The US market during December averaged 1.4% over the last 50 years, up 70% of the time. The first half of the month the market is usually flat and then the second half of the month has an average 1.6% return 80% of the time. In Canada it is 2.1% on the month 84% of the time. It is still back end weighted in Canada as well. Trump is going to reduce tax rates and this will impact aggressiveness of tax loss selling. This year is different because of the Trump Rally and it should continue through to inauguration day (Jan 20) at which point markets typically drop as the new president begins in office. The following 2 to 3 months after a new president is elected, markets typically go lower and then rebound after that. Jan 20 will be a significant top in markets.

Educational Segment. Why the TSX outperforms in the early part of the year. The Canadian market outperforms the US from December to the end of February. It has to do with commodity prices, which move higher. Crude oil is at the end of its seasonal weakness after which it moves higher. Silver moves higher from December into March. Copper moves higher from now until April. Gasoline goes up from now until the beginning of March.

Markets. He was pleased with the Trump rally. US financials are probably his largest weighting and he has owned US industrials for a long time. For him it is a stock by stocks call. He has been reducing position sizes recently. He does not focus on yield but on the company behind the business. There is a rotation out of higher dividends as interest rates tick up. Buying back stock at an attractive price is just another way to deploy capital to him. He likes companies that know when to raise dividends, buy back stock or make acquisitions.

Canadian Banks. He does not own any of them because he found better value in US financials.

Market. We are in a strong seasonal period, and with the Trump election, people have come to the realization that although there are quite a few unknowns, net/net it is a pretty positive development for markets in the near term for a potential stimulus and confidence in the economy. In the last 5 years, we have had an economic recovery, but it has been a grudgingly slow economic recovery. A lot of that had to do with business confidence. One potentially exciting thing that comes out of the Trump election is that we could get some higher confidence, where businesses start to invest a little more. Thinks Trump and both houses are positive for the economy, and we are going to see slightly better than expected growth. Also, with the potential tweaking of tax rates, there could be stronger than expected growth, which is very positive in this low interest rate environment.

Marijuana? These have had huge runs. None of them are really making money, and some of the valuations are absolutely nuts. If he were doing anything in the sector, he would be Shorting some of these. To him it is just inevitable that eventually the valuations are going to go down.

Market. The market has gone almost a decade without a correction, and you normally don’t go that long, so something was going to happen. He is 60%-70% cash and just waiting. Doesn’t want to get caught flat footed again with another massive correction and no money to deploy, so looks at corrections as an opportunity rather than as a disaster. He doesn’t buy the argument that rates are going to go that much higher. We live in a world with very little inflation and technology destroys a lot of jobs, more than we create. There is also a demographic issue in the developed world where we are getting older.

Market. He is not a fan of Trump, but he is certainly acting presidential, a total surprise. We’ll have to wait and see. OPEC reached an agreement, and implementation is in January. Whether they keep the agreement or not is a totally different question. Oil has a long way to go to get back to balance. Thinks there will be a consolidation in the low $50. Expects the price is going to go higher in 2017, simply because they haven’t put the money in that makes the oil come off the other end.

Telcos, utilities or banks? Utilities haven’t been acting that well, nor has BCE. This a buying opportunity. He would be on the sidelines with utilities as they are more sensitive. Yields tend to be lower than the telecoms. Wait until after December 15 when he believes there will be a rate increase. With the bond market selling off and bond yields coming back, and not yielding as much as banks or telecoms, the utilities are still vulnerable. He would stand back and wait for the next 6-9 months to see what happens. (See Top Picks.)

Gold? Which company? He is not in gold, but believes that until he sees the whites of the eyes of inflation, we are not going to see it. We are building an environment of higher oil prices, fiscal stimulation, bank regulation, etc. which are bound to create more inflation if they are carried through. If inflation starts to show up, then he’ll have a hard look at gold again.

Market. What Trump plans to do is to reverse course from what has been going on for the past 8 years, and take away the emphasis on monetary policy and low interest rates, and move over to fiscal policy. There are 4 things coming along. 1.) Tax cuts, which can be fairly quick, and would be a nice boost for corporate profits. 2.) Up to $5 trillion of infrastructure spending, designed for all those people who have lost their jobs. 3.) Potential changes to the Dodd-Frank act for the banks. 4.) A major repatriation of all of the overseas cash that is sitting in bank accounts of many corporations. These things are quite bullish for the market. He suspects that the US$ is going higher, and gold is going lower. You put your money into the financial stocks, which are going to be huge beneficiaries.

Market. He had been quite cautious on bonds prior to the US election. There is still risk out there. There is going to be uncertainty as to how US policies will be implemented, and if the Trump administration is protectionist at all. So far, he seems to have moderated some of his views. Talking about tax cuts, deregulation, infrastructure spending all of which are generally very pro-growth and good for business, and ultimately good for the US economy and equities.