A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

2019 should be a good year. Back-to-back negative years are rare. The average return following a down year is +17%. In 2015, we were down 8% then up 21% in 2016 for the TSX. Oil pricees have bottomed and should do well in 2019 which will benefit the TSX. Canadian financials look very attractive at current prices. These two sectors are poisted to do very well in 2019. Q4 dividend payers like Fortis and BCE were up 5% vs. Canadian banks -17%. Surprising given good earnings results in November 2018; banks were punished unfairly and are now bouncing back. U.S.: he expects currency headwinds and for the FAANGs to struggle in 2019 with negative Q4 earnings. He'd reduce his American positions.

Losing the Brexit vote. Everyone was expecting that. Now we're in a void. Longer term danger is if Corbin forms a government, that's what the markets are afraid of. Brexit was threatening the fabric of the EU and throwing the world into uncertainty. Now the UK might prefer to stay, so this might add confidence to the EU. Overall, long term positive; short term volatility.

How does it look for 2019? Still seeing desynchronization in global growth. Signs that consumer spending, business investment, and general growth are slowing down. Shorter term, cyclical concerns. Overall, growth is still slightly positive. Last quarter of 2018, plus first couple of days of 2019 were scary, but now things have reversed. Don't get complacent. This year will have greater volatility than last year. Investors need to be choosy. Going forward, more focus on valuation and fundamentals. Will see more M&A activity this year, involving a great restructuring.

Number one Black Swan Worry. A black swan is supposed to be something no one is thinking about. Trump's end of term would be one. But over the last few years we doubled the debt in the world without creating growth. The US and China have horrible fiscal positions – Japan also. This is the catalyst for bad economics over the next few years. This would be the Black Swan: a credit problem.

Educational Segment. Sleep at night. ZZZD-T was launched. A study of pension fund data yielded that returns were from asset allocation. It is not what securities you pick, but asset allocation that drives returns. Over the last year there is no return in the fund. The total world ETF and Canadian ETF performances are worse. He has been adding to exposure when it was dropping. He moved into ETFs with lower downside. He caught most of the upside. He won the Lipper award for best risk adjusted return. www.ZZZPorfolios.com.

Market. This is a little bit of a bounce. The market was oversold. This is a key time because we are going into earnings season after having terrible economic reports. When you have negative news and the market rallies that is good. But C-N today came out missing on earnings with revenue up. Seasonally this is a good time to be in the market but we are jostling back and forth. The TSX has been advancing nicely since the beginning of 2019. We have to get through 15,300 which is the resistance level. He thinks we will see some muddling around for the next few months.

Tax loss selling/Santa Clause Rally. Investors sell losers in December to offset gains and it drives that sector down temporarily. It was the energy sector this year. He usually sees a Santa Clause rally but it was late this year. People use the Santa Clause rally as an indication of the rest of the year.

US Banks – BAC-N and JPM-N. Seasonally strong until the end of April. BAC-N is expected to come out with earnings. This is a positive with C-N today. It is bank week this week for earnings releases. If we see positive action this will be good. BAC-N is up on good news with C-N. JPM-T has done well relative to the sector. BAC-N is at a base going back to 2017. He is favourable on US banks. However he is not falling in love with them.

2017 saw the lowest volatility and nowadays it is mean-reverting. We had 10 years of very low interest rates. When the central banks take away this liquidity, that results in a lot of volatility. Historically, when central banks pause (or reverse rates) it's scary, and central banks are doing that now. When the cycle turns (which he believes is happening now), who will buy the riskier assets out there? This worries him, referring to the October 2018 sell-off. He feels the credit cycle has tipped over, and in a year from now there'll likely be a Canadian recession, and within two years a global one. He expects more downgrades coming in the next earnings season. It's not the time to panic-sell, but when you see a rally in the market, lighten up your stocks.

Vanadium outlook China will be greatly impacted by U.S. trade policies. Until this is trade war is cleared up, numbers we saw last weekend are to be expected. It's underrated how China has been a huge contributor to global growth. Not only vanadium, but all the base metals will be effected by the trade issue. A free trade deal will help, but he thinks the credit cycle has turned. He's negative, but there could be a short-term pop if there's a trade deal between China and America signed.

Market Outlook He is 75% cash right now. He is glad the market is rebounding, but he does not really buy into it. He sees the economy slowing down still and black clouds are still forming. He is focusing on stocks that are not going to be impacted by today's market uncertainties.

Gold Strategy. It will always be volatile. He reads a lot of analysts suggesting this is the time to get back into it -- especially with some market uncertainty. He prefers owning bullion bullion rather than individual companies. He thinks it is hard to find companies that avoid accidents. He likes owning a basket of stocks.

It's been a good week. The selling was overdone, given record employment levels in the U.S. and other positive indicators. Corrections must happen. He'd like to see a base building, though. As long as there's a momentum happening, he doesn't see a recession, which may happen in 2020--and even that could be too soon. Trump as well as the Democrats have been talking about infrastructure spending, which could extend a positive market. China-US need to reach an agreement; it would benefit both especially China. Both countries are realists and he believes they are working towards an agreement. US Fed Chair Powell should go easy on rate hikes, and it seems like he is now.

When would you buy a gold stock? You buy these stocks when you expect currencies, namely the US dollar, to weaken, and when inflation rises, which eats into your assets. We haven't seen serious moves in gold lately, only minor ones.