A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Market. We are extended in the short term. That is to be expected because we had a pretty good run. Put/Calls are showing complacency. We could expect a 1-5% correction, but how the pause manifests itself is always unique. It is a combination of price and time. The S&P has a nice trend, but we are at the top end of the channel it is in. The US$ is doing what it is expected to do. It is a pro-cyclical move underpinned by commodities. The bit of inflation we are getting is a good thing.

TSX. If you go back to 2007/8, we are up only about 2000 points. The US is a more growth oriented market. The trend we are seeing now, he thinks, is for real.

Market Outlook He has been buying less and selling more. For the portfolio, he has dropped holdings from 22 down to 12 -- not buying anything this year. He is playing defense by taking money off the table. He is definitely looking to sell.

Canadian Banks He owns Laurentian bank and is holding it for the dividends. In a recession, he expects the Canadian banking sector will get killed. He would likely move to holding the preferreds as he expects a recession by 2021 as it will be safer. You might do better looking into European banks that could create better capital appreciation and dividends. Taking some money off the table, early in the New Year, would make sense. He would be cautious about shorting any Canadian banks as you have to cover the dividends.

Mid-cap O&G? He is looking at a lot of mid-cap energy stocks right now. He is not racing to buy any right now as many have high levels of debt. Natural gas is undervalued, he thinks, but thinks fracing in the US could be a wildcard. Looking at energy now is a smart thing to do.

CDN dollar? Neither Canada nor the US has control over their deficits. Unemployment is at super low levels and the economies are doing well -- this is the time they should be paying down debt.

Market Outlook Last year the year end market was much different when the Fed Reserve was too much into the tightening camp. Since then they have eased three times this year and the stock market has responded. He thinks markets will continue to ebb and flow and every ounce of good news has to have a response. You have to step up that much more to keep momentum going. It has been a very good decade, but was not as good as the 80's, 90's or 50's. Stability has defined this market, with low volatility. This can lead to being complacent. He thinks the economy may go into a low growth environment, which may cause rotation into value based companies based on more reasonable P/E multiples.

Housing & Recessions US Housing Starts have recovered back to 1.3 million new starts -- more normal levels. Housing start growth means we are not yet getting close to a recession as a decline in starts has been a good predictor of recessions.

There’s nothing that’s holding the markets back. Some of the volume is down, so he’s sitting on the sidelines though. It’s rare to have rising returns back to back. He’s neutral right now by reducing equities and going into fixed income.

Phase 1 of the US-China trade deal was tepid with little details. There’s finally results of what the trade war has done. The valuations are still pretty high. He doesn’t believe inflation has gone away.

He was expecting to see more tax-loss selling in energy stocks. There have been some significant up trends however. On the earning side, we have to watch the price of oil. If we hit $70 for oil, energy stocks may do very well.

Market. We have seen a massive disconnect between oil and oil stocks. Oil rallied this year but you just starting to see oil stocks lift. The 'truce' between China and the US has taken the demand worry off the table. Investors on the sidelines thinking oil might be a little bit wobbly, last Friday saw the end of tax loss selling was the green light to go back into oil. The mid-cap space was the most abandoned. The real opportunity today is those mid-cap Canadian oil stocks. He is optimistic for 2020.

Brexit's influence on the 2020 U.S. election The Tories' Johnson won in part because voters were scared of Labour's strong left-wing party. The U.S. needs a leader in the middle. The UK election may influence the Democrats' platform.

Too much to hold 4 Canadian banks, consisting of 20% of his portfolio? He's long term. Nothing wrong with this. Banks do incredibly well in Canada, generating 12-15% ROE long term and always raise their dividends. They're well-regulated and diversified across North America.

Market Outlook The market appears to be changing with money coming back into value stocks, not just growth and technology. He thinks there is still lots of money sitting on the sidelines that can fuel the market higher. Yield curve inversions have for the most part returned to normal -- even negative bond yields in Europe are starting to end. He thinks government and personal debt will be a problem, but highly levered corporate debt will likely be the first issues. He has been buying high quality (P2) preferred shares.