A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
USD? He is not a currrency specialist. Exposure to the US and Europe and Canada, creates a natural hedge for them. He has heard chatter for a potential accord to weaken the US dollar and the US government would not be adverse to it. You can choose to hedge your exposure through various Canadian offerings.
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Market. He showed a chart that was pre-empted on Monday's educational segment of Berman's Call. Vix readings are same as the extremes in 2008 following the Leman bankruptcy. The Vix stayed elevated for months and months until March of 2009. He would encourage people to understand the VIX and north of 40 is indicates too much volatility to catch falling knives. He then outlined money falling into money market funds. At some point we are going to get a phenomenal rally. People ask where the bottom is but we need to see the VIX below 40. It is 75-80 recently. He was aggressively buying with the S&P at these levels at Christmas of 2018 but now he is not.

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Banks. The analysts have not started to assess long term numbers. Wall Street is predicting a 'V' shape. Earnings will fall. He feels we will hit 1400 on the S&P.
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Hedged or unhedged. The US dollar is an asset class to protect people as the Canadian dollar goes down. Yesterday he hedged all his holdings back to Canadian Dollars.
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Why are bond ETFs going down? Bonds are not very liquid right now. The discount in ETFs is reflecting where the true markets are. Spreads are blowing out to very wide levels. The ETF trades at a discount to the underlying because of illiquidity of the underlying bonds.
DON'T BUY
Corona virus stocks. He does not know about stocks the caller named. It would be gambling.
WATCH
Pot Stocks and increased demand from Pandemic. In this part of the cycle where recession is the biggest risk, you want quality companies with clean balance sheets and not a lot of debt. Look at getting back into it when things normalize again.
DON'T BUY
VIX. Volatility is high right now and it is expensive. You need to know what future VIX is trading at. You have to be an expert to play the VIX. You’d be better to write puts on the S&P 500.
COMMENT
The economy is shutting down and we're heading to the PM invoking the War Measures Act. One in four businesses could go out of business, and is delaying the tax-filing deadline. Small businesses need help. How deep will this go? This is happening while the global economy was slowing down and we just came off the trade war. This could be a long, slow recovery, but the good news--this will end. It always does, but how long will it take to dig out of that hole? The hard thing is to decide to buy in this market and not get scared out of it. Stay invested, but prudently buy. Look for companies with strong financials that will survive. There have been dramatic dividend cuts in energy, but in this environment why pay dividends at all? Why not hold onto capital?
COMMENT
Trump press conference on right now. Muchin suggests mailing $1,000 to Americans Well, how will they spend that money if they are staying home and businesses are closed? Until we get over this virus hump, it'll be difficult to bring back demand--and which sectors will bounce back first?
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Market. Stocks are on sale! The market is a discounting mechanism. Today's 7% haircut is narrowing the gap between prices and 200 day moving averages. There are lots of opportunities. He looks for low debt, large backlogs and free cash flow positive. There appear to be bargains in the oil patch.
COMMENT
Electric Vehicles – best way to play. Vehicles sales will slow because of CoVid19. EFL is a good company to play it.
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Market. People need to remain calm. Your finical planner has set you up for a long term horizon. Where there has been social distancing, the spread of the virus has been mitigated. You should not be panicking but looking for opportunities in the next couple of months. It will take several trillion of stimuli to mitigate in the next couple of quarter for this global shut in. Gold is extremely attractive. You do not want to chase rallies at this point.
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Liquidity. It is where the market maker stands between the bid and the ask. These are expanding and the Fed has created this unprecedented amount of liquidity by buying bonds. As the VIX increases you see increase in the bid/ask spreads.
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Buying back in. Dollar cost averaging. Buying back in. Dollar cost averaging. In 2008/9 earnings got cut 40% and that is the magnitude we are talking about, however no one knows. You should scale in.
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