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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Educational Segment. Earnings season is starting next week. Markets will be focusing on the earnings. S&P is now up to $174/share. With the S&P over $4000, the multiple we pay for the earnings is getting pretty high. The multiple of the market should be 16.5x, which is fair value. If we use a multiple of 20x, you get a $200/share number. Before covid, for 2021, we were expecting $200. Now 2022 expectations are at $200. The earnings are discounted into the future. The markets are expensive here. May will be interesting and we could see selling into strength.
COMMENT
Buy everything except the stay at home stocks, which is what happened today. We just saw blow-out jobs numbers. If everyone is vaccinated, we may return to record-low, pre-Covid employment levels, unless inflation spikes. These record highs have come at the expense of the stay at homes, which may see a comeback. But he thinks a slowdown won't happen. Meanwhile, he sees an uptick in index funds, which help lift FAANGs which are part of them. It's strange to see low-wage inflation now.
COMMENT
The new investors who fuelled the Reddit short squeeze seem to be bowing out. One reason is that some of their stocks got crashed. Meanwhile, professional money managers have moved onto reopening plays and increasingly more back into big tech stocks. Those young, new investors still holding those Reddit stocks are waiting for them to bounce back to former lofty levels, but he doubts they will. The lesson: an investors needs to diversify into financials, retails or the rails. Boring stocks, but you need them.
COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The government is providing liquidity to the system through QE. More access to capital should mean banks are more willing to lend. However, savings rates have increased dramatically while spending and investments have not occurred at the pace that was expected. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Too much euphoria in the market? Not sure it's euphoria. Aren't markets supposed to go up? 2019 and 2020 were spectacular years. And people are thinking the good news we expected in 2021, actually took place in 2020. Markets don't go up every single year. Even in times of good economies and fundamentals, the stock market will do whatever it likes.
COMMENT
Just a sugar high with governments propping up the economy and low interest rates? Go back to January 2020, the outlook was really good. This is what governments do to protect the economy, people and business. Hopefully it's onwards and upwards from here.
COMMENT
Interested in energy? No. He doesn't want oil to go negative or stay low. But we have to start preparing for a post-carbon world, and we have to get there sooner rather than later. You don't want oil to drive economies for the next 30 years. He'd rather own companies that can set prices for customers, rather than betting whether the price of oil will go up or down.
COMMENT

Outlook for rails as coal is phased out. CP rail still moves a fair bit of thermal coal, which is decreasing. CNR gets more of its revenue from metallurgical coal, which is increasing. Both provide only a small portion of revenues. They also move chemicals, lumber, autos. If you're betting on worldwide economic recovery for many years, as he is, you have to own the railroads. He's a bit nervous about the acquisition of KCS, but if that goes through, could be terrific. Incredible performers over the long term, and no reason this will stop. He owns CNR, but would have no problem holding CP. Keep holding.

COMMENT

Canadian or US banks, lifecos, car makers, or FANGs? Thinks of best business first, and then country second. His clients own National Bank, TD, RY, and JPM. Best banks with the best management teams. Jaime Dimon at JPM is the very best. In Canada, his favourite is always National, with smart acquisitions and growing in wealth management. All Canadian banks are under-levered. You have to be there.

COMMENT
Interested in lifecos? Not as much. It's a harder business to figure out. Though as interest rates go up, it is beneficial for the lifecos.
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Pipelines. Not that interested. Scarcity argument is a strong one for putting value on pipelines. They were cheap in 2020, but not now. Also face concern about rising interest rates.
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Canadian housing market. Strong housing market is related to low interest rates. Hard to imagine it getting weaker. Rates will remain historically quite low, but at some point, the BoC rate decision will be reversed. If you can afford it, go ahead. If you can't and you're speculating, good luck to you.
COMMENT
What's your approach for tech these days? A wrestling match between the markets and interest rates. Everyone is expecting inflation and rates to go higher, which has impacted tech stocks and the darlings in the reopening stocks. He's sticking to his knitting. Invest in the leaders in long-run, lucrative technology runways. At this stage, the runways are a lot longer than he's seen in a while. At least half of the stocks he owns or are on his radar have 20-30-35% upside from current prices. The pullback has provided opportunity.
COMMENT
Any bargains in tech? Yes. There's been a pullback in the IGB, a barometer of SaaS, of almost 40% in some stocks. But it's up almost 2.5% today. Eventually, people will come back. Thankfully, semis and cloud providers have just been treading water. In the 2nd quarter, perhaps we'll see some tech leadership coming from software, semis, and cloud providers.
COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Valuations are contributing to the correction in tech stocks. Tech stocks can do well in a higher rate environment but it must be accompanied by good economic growth. The market rotation could last for another 3-6 months. It is recommended to include some income stocks and to not have all tech stocks. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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