Jeff Mills on Fast Money

Market outlook He wants to see more selling before the market reaches capitulation. Almost there. For Apple, today saw the first time since October 2020 that the stock broke its upward trendline. There was similar price action in Microsoft. The economy will continue to slow and inflation and rates will peak. Then, you wade into these growth names. Apple and Microsoft have to give back more before the market capitulates.

Nvidia is trading at the same forward PE as Clorox. It's worth looking at these quality growth names with real earnings and cash flows, because inflation will peak and the market will re-rate what the Fed will do. Investors will position themselves in such names in the second half of this year.

He expects banks to go even lower as the Fed hikes rates. It's a macro call.

Should today's sell-off hit MSFT tech stocks as well as Peloton tech stocks? You have to distinguish between those two classes, but the sell-off open a buying opportunity. Investors will seek profitable growth as the economy slows down. Today's hawkish Fed comments will grow more out of step with reality as the year unfolds. The Fed should have already hiked rates sooner. Buy value and cyclicals, like financials and energy. Stay there until the market digests this. In the second half of 2022, the market will start to slow and there may be opportunities to buy the better tech names.

The U.S. 10-year yield rising Unlikely the 10-year will reach 2.25% to 2.5% in the next 6-12 months is unlikely, because the market is still digesting the really low terminal federal funds rate.

Oracle is profitable, has defensive growth and is less cyclical, because many of its sales/revenues are recurring. Their recent acquisition was good. Also, the stock has been beaten up, so it's now a good entry point. The dinosaur tech names are worthy.

Walmart is a good combination of defense and yet is exposed to a growing economy and a healthy consumer. WM is good to own for 2022.

A past pick that hasn't worked out, but it still has good tailwinds from onshoring infrastructure spending, and it has held an important technical level.

The week in review Under the surface recently is weakness is being masked by strong in tech stocks. On the S&P, less than half of stocks are trading below their 50-day moving average. So, it's not as broad as a market rally as we saw earlier this year. Even within tech we're seeing a bifurcation with the Nasdaq 100 names hitting fresh highs, but some of the Cathy Wood names not. This is no longer the rising tide lifting all boats kind of market. Investors are looking for fundamentals. Volatility will be present in coming months. Retail sales numbers today are encouraging. Spending is happening even as fiscal stimulus is waning. He still feels we're early in this bull market.

It reports on Monday and is up 40% since its last earnings report They pay a 4.7% dividend yield so there's some margin on safety. They are returning to revenue growth, gross margins are improving, and they boast solid free cash flow that could be invested in cloud, or A.I. that drives bottom-line growth. They have 18% growth in the cloud business. No, it's not a slam dunk, and there's still work to be done, but at 13x forward earnings and approaching $130/share (long-term support) you can take a chance on this.

The sticking point is that advertisers see before ROI on other platforms. Twitter has made strives, but not enough, and he's skeptical about Twitter's lofty 2023 revenue target. The sales-to-price is too high.

He likes the homebuilder correction; DHI is down 16% from its YTD highs to 7.5x forward earnings. Time to buy.

Tech stocks during this rotation Tech names are tradable now but only in the very short term: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Spotify and Nvidia are at longer-term technical support and that's good. Last week, only 20% of big tech was trading above their 50-day moving average, usually meaning a tradable low signal. Bond sentiment is turning bearish, so rates could trade sideways for a bit, so you can play this oversold condition in tech tech trade. However, cyclicals will rule the day longer term especially in the summer with inflation fears.

You can trade this. An interesting name. Today, Draft Kings was up while traditional gambling like Penn Gaming was down. There'll be massive pent-up demand after this huge stimulus bill will fuel this name. During Superbowl, you couldn't even log into Draft Kings, when there was a 60%+ increase in online gambling. Also, more states are passing sports betting.