Jeff Mills on Fast Money
Chief Investment Officer at Bryn Mawr Trust
Member since: Mar '21 · 24 Opinions
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Stock Opinions by Jeff Mills on Fast Money
DON'T BUY
BUY
Rising after hours on earnings beat
Remains a stock that performs in a weak economy, which he expects for late this year. Since 1990, has outperformed in recessions. Subscription revenues now stand at 43% of overall and growing faster than overall. It's resilient. Valuation is fair and pays a decent dividend.
electrical
electronic
DON'T BUY
COMMENT
Market outlook He wants to see more selling before the market reaches capitulation. Almost there. For Apple, today saw the first time since October 2020 that the stock broke its upward trendline. There was similar price action in Microsoft. The economy will continue to slow and inflation and rates will peak. Then, you wade into these growth names. Apple and Microsoft have to give back more before the market capitulates.
electrical
electronic
WATCH
Nvidia is trading at the same forward PE as Clorox. It's worth looking at these quality growth names with real earnings and cash flows, because inflation will peak and the market will re-rate what the Fed will do. Investors will position themselves in such names in the second half of this year.
misc consumer products
COMMENT
Should today's sell-off hit MSFT tech stocks as well as Peloton tech stocks? You have to distinguish between those two classes, but the sell-off open a buying opportunity. Investors will seek profitable growth as the economy slows down. Today's hawkish Fed comments will grow more out of step with reality as the year unfolds. The Fed should have already hiked rates sooner. Buy value and cyclicals, like financials and energy. Stay there until the market digests this. In the second half of 2022, the market will start to slow and there may be opportunities to buy the better tech names.
COMMENT
The week in review Under the surface recently is weakness is being masked by strong in tech stocks. On the S&P, less than half of stocks are trading below their 50-day moving average. So, it's not as broad as a market rally as we saw earlier this year. Even within tech we're seeing a bifurcation with the Nasdaq 100 names hitting fresh highs, but some of the Cathy Wood names not. This is no longer the rising tide lifting all boats kind of market. Investors are looking for fundamentals. Volatility will be present in coming months. Retail sales numbers today are encouraging. Spending is happening even as fiscal stimulus is waning. He still feels we're early in this bull market.
BUY
It reports on Monday and is up 40% since its last earnings report They pay a 4.7% dividend yield so there's some margin on safety. They are returning to revenue growth, gross margins are improving, and they boast solid free cash flow that could be invested in cloud, or A.I. that drives bottom-line growth. They have 18% growth in the cloud business. No, it's not a slam dunk, and there's still work to be done, but at 13x forward earnings and approaching $130/share (long-term support) you can take a chance on this.
electrical
electronic
There's no reason why this stock can't go higher, but worries about it in another risk-off environment, which he thinks will happen in coming months. It's traded in $200-300 for a while with $225 as the next level. But there are a ton of cross-currents it faces--lowering prices, decent demand in US, but potential issues in China (suppose Chin's economy contracts). Shares are still in a downtrend, but will revisit it when that trend changes. He's been wrong about Elon Musk before. $