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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Stock-picking in this environment. Always look for strong secular growth companies, with high quality attributes, trading at fair or reasonable valuation. Tactically, you want to be in cyclicals like financials, materials, energy, and consumer discretionary over defensives like consumer staples and utilities. Likes the US for depth and breadth of high quality names. Europe looks attractive from a relative valuation discount. Covid numbers dropping in the UK. In Canada, likes financials, energy, and materials.
COMMENT
Rich valuation of US equities. Parts of the US market do look rich, such as less mature tech names. Price to sales measure of the S&P Tech sector is back to 2000 levels, and we know what happened after that, so you have to watch out. Some tech names he'll continue to hold and add to, but some areas are looking expensive. It's the job of portfolio managers to choose the names and sectors that make sense for their clients.
COMMENT

Owning the tech giants. AAPL has underperformed the broader S&P 500 index since last fall. Great balance sheet, but perhaps not enough EPS growth at 9%. You want to see strong revenue growth, and looking back 5 years, AAPL's is only about 4%. High margins let it do well. Is this sustainable? Ahead of AAPL, he'd prefer FB, GOOG, MSFT, or AMZN, which all have higher revenue growth and each of which he owns.

COMMENT

Fast food stocks. Doesn't see a ton of dividend growth ahead in QSR. Even though there's growth in Popeye's, it provides only 11% of total revenues, so it will be hard to affect the whole company. It will perform OK, but have to keep our eyes on the Delta variant. Yield is about 3.3%, and thinks it's secure. Instead, he'd suggest SBUX on a pullback, DPZ or YUMC (which he owns).

COMMENT

Clean energy ETFs. ICLN is the go-to clean energy ETF in the US, well diversified. For CAD, look at the ZCLN, which is very similar. Some of these ETFs have fallen over the last few months, but now are stabilizing and moving higher. One of the mega-trends. Watch that most stocks have already priced in positive moves, where the average PE of the stocks is about 52x. Be careful of valuations.

COMMENT

Canadian tech names. Canadian space if fairly limited. There's SHOP, CSU, OTEX and that's about it. Maybe also BB. Look to the US and Asia for tech names. Loves FB and GOOG. Clampdown in China is presenting opportunities. Try NVDA, TSM, MSFT, MA. Some of these names make a lot of sense when you look at the valuation.

COMMENT
Possibility of paper tantrum? Future interest rate moves won't be a shock to the economy. The Fed is telegraphing well. Rates will remain lower for longer. Inflation is transitory at this point. It will be higher today and next year, but this is due to economic restart not economic recovery, two different things. With a restart, supply is constrained as demand moves higher. With a recovery, supply remains high and demand goes down and starts to move higher. Doesn't see hyper-inflation in this part of the world.
COMMENT

US financials. Likes the US financials, such as JPM. It has great management and execution, yield of 2.35%. He owns some of the European financials like UBS, as well as HSBC, PRU, and WFC.

COMMENT
Positioning, when bear/bull calls are split 50/50. Expect more market volatility, as seen in the last few months. 87% invested in two dozen tech vendors and end users, coupled with a 61% short equity indices overlay (hedge) on the invested stock portfolio. The hedge protects the portfolio if the stock market were to deteriorate. He has laddered NASDAQ put options. That hedge will incrementally grow as the delta on those put options starts to grow.
COMMENT
Upside missed with hedges in place? It's like an insurance policy, which has a premium attached to it. The beta in the stock market is greater than the beta on the hedge. As the market continues to melt up, he makes money, though perhaps not as much as the NASDAQ. Their benchmark, chosen by the OSC, is 50/50 NASDAQ/Russell, so it gets both sides of the cyclical/growth play. He doesn't make as much, but he's certainly protected on the downside. If the downside is more than 5-10%, the hedge makes money for his fund.
COMMENT

Tech sub-sectors. Bullish calls: he's overweight on semiconductor foundries, designers, integrated manufacturers both on memory and analog. Also overweight on the cloud stacks from AMZN to MSFT and GOOG, and the platform players that use the various infrastructures, plus SaaS. He's underweight on the gaming side and perhaps neutral on social media.

COMMENT
Price targets and selling. When a stock gets within 5-7% of his price target, he starts to take some profits. You have to be disciplined. Have a price at where you're going to enter, but also have a stop on top of that.
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Stock weighting. He never holds more than a 6% weighting of a single stock in his portfolio. Once it gets up to 5%, he starts to take some money off the table. There are lots of other stocks on his shopping list to buy with the proceeds.
COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. If interest rates rise, utilities, real estate ,communications and tech tend to be weak. Dividend stocks also decline as there are alternatives. However, markets have done well when rates were rising. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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