A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

If there are doubles in your portfolio, they may have risen too fast, too much so take some profits. Try to rebalance so you can invest with proper allocations.

Technical analyst Larry Williams says to buy at the end of October or start of November Autumnal seasonality is coming to an end. So start buying? No so fast. Technician Larry Williams's 2021 forecast so far has been dead on, foreseeing dips in April and mid-July and not. Williams forecasts upside near the end of October and will continue to rally through the end of the year. From 1923-2020, rallies begin on October 29. Williams says buy on the 22nd day of trading in October, which in 2021 means November 1. So, buying on November, based on Williams' data also reports rewards.

Markets. He tends to be a cautious investor, not to say that he's negative. Stocks do well in expansions, but there are always corrections. Stocks aren't cheap, but interest rates are low and unlikely to soar. Wage inflation is low. Wage inflation is good for consumer spending. Growth has peaked, but it's still a tailwind. Global lockdowns are easing, so this should lead to an end of supply chain issues and to a moderating of inflationary expectations. Most of the inflation we're seeing is in durable goods, which will ease when lockdowns ease. There's lots of household liquidity, supporting demand for goods and services. An expanding economy is good for stocks.

Investor timeframes. He's a long-term investor, doesn't get too worried about headline news. There's a lot of fast money moving around. Concerns about China, inflation, and debt ceilings can all cause volatility. Stocks did well coming out the pandemic, but people are getting more selective. Now that we're mid-cycle, investors need to be mindful of quality instead of quantity. Make sure you have your risk parameters in place. Don't get over your skis, overly aggressive, investing in companies like cryptocurrencies that don't make any money. Mid-cycle currents can cause ripple effects, so make sure you stick to good quality businesses.

Good quality businesses. Those that touch people's lives on a daily business. Banking, info tech, delightful products and services that people use over and over again. Such as DIS, MCD, online shopping, or a desire to get access to information quickly. You're not going to innovate away these cornerstones.

Markets. Feels like we're starting to get a more permanent rotation from growth to value. Started earlier this year, growth came back over the summer, but now the switch is continuing. An analogy is when we saw a rolling top in tech in 2000, and then there was a huge divergence in performance.

For the remainder of the year, investors will have to be more discerning. Last year, all you had to do was buy the market and things just went up. This year, you can't just blindly throw money at the market. Stuff with crazy valuations will be down over the next years. There are also a lot of great opportunities for upside if you're picking the right spots. He's always looks for really good businesses that are at a discount to intrinsic value. This will add value over time.

Sectors right now. Oil and gas. It went through a 10-year bear market. Look at free cashflows and earnings. Valuations are really cheap and compelling. Seeing insider buying. Stocks are moving up and starting to outperform. We'll see a lot more outperformance over the next year in the sector. A cyclical sector that presents compelling opportunities from time to time, as in 1999. You have to really dig down and understand the sector and the fundamentals.

Tech outlook. Tech will underperform over the next year. What tech you do own, make sure it has good underlying free cashflow support, like with a MSFT.

Q3 was like watching paint dry with the indices barely moving and mostly because of dividends. A traditionally weak September collided with the heavy back-to-school/work move. He expects this high inflation to remain for a while. That's a risk as well as transportation commodities, shortages of things like computer chips, which he expects to resolve in mid-2022. At least household balance sheets are strong and can support a recover. He favours stocks that are price-makers and not price-takers (commodities). He also likes companies that use a lot of capital or replace technology with labour. Wage inflation will be with us for a while, but will favour lower-income people. He's watching ATD'B, for instance.

Educational Segment. When US government is shut down, it is bearish for the economy. However, it depends on the start and ending points. Since markets are depressed right now, it could rally in the coming months. There is the debt ceiling, and the treasury general account running out of money, which could be in the next 3 weeks. There are two paths: either they reconcile and extend the debt ceiling or throw in at the last minute. It is all about the 2022 elections. The plan for dems is to spend all the money now so that the economy is strong next year. Positive on the energy outlook based on politics and trading perspective.

Gold and silver. Has been frustrated with the gold performance. Still in an environment where gold and silver should do well. Silver is more sensitive to the economy with the industrial component and it could be more attractive than gold.