A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

What happens if Russia invades Ukraine over the long weekend? It's not a long weekend everywhere. It's very concerning to the US' alliance with Europe. Oil prices are already elevated. Europeans are not energy independent, so this could create major ripple effects economically across the EU and UK.

Believes long term wage inflation is a concern. Supply of labor is a down. Thinks 6-7 interest rate hikes are not out of the question. US Federal Reserve will gauge market, and react accordingly after each rate hike.

Investors can protect portfolios from interest rate hikes by diversifying holdings. Owning a basket of stocks that preform in different economic scenarios is a good strategy. Believes discount in growth stocks is presenting buying opportunities.

CRYPTO UPDATE The cryptocurrency market, for some time has still not found a direction. Using Bitcoin as a benchmark, we can clearly see that the asset has been in a triangle of indecision since the middle of January. On the fundamental level, apart from another reversal of position by Russia and India on the status of crypto-currencies, we can note the decision of the Ukrainian government to strengthen the right of protection to the owners of cryptos by legalizing more digital assets.

Tech sector. There have been some powerful changes in the market, especially in the NASDAQ 100. It reached the same valuation peak from October to early January that it did in the year 2000, and has now stepped back. This is the first leg down of that index. Some stocks like PTON have been massacred, as they don't have much earnings support. These stocks are still not cheap, and have miles to go before they're finished. SHOP and some of the FANGs are also on their way lower. Modestly decent fundamentals have held up so far. If all this reminds you of the height of the dot-com boom, it should.

Portfolio positioning. As in 2000, value stocks and gold have held their ground. Economy didn't implode then, and it doesn't appear to be imploding now. He has no overall sell signal for the general market, and he's in no panic to become defensive unless you still hold the NASDAQ stocks. If you do, switch to any areas of value. End of pandemic should open the NA economies to a great degree and encourage the overall market to stay the course, at least for now. TSX is far, far better value than the S&P or NASDAQ, and he'd focus his portfolio there.

Differences from year 2000? If you can find differences, good on you. Only the names have been changed to protect the guilty. Same excessive valuations have begun to correct. Switch from those high valuation, no sales, no earnings stocks and into value. Value held quite nicely for all of the 2000s. We can see a crash again on the NASDAQ stocks. The lion's share of those are still excessively valued. For the NASDAQ to just get back to FMV (not even cheap), it would have to fall almost 40%.

Investing in China. Not only would he avoid BABA, but China in general. This view is seconded by David Rosenberg. BRK may favour China right now, but they've not been without mistakes, and some have been lulus. Beware of the politics of that market.

Let stocks run or trim? When a stock goes and goes, periodically, usually quarterly, trim back to 3-5%, depending on the climb. Means that you're taking profits but staying exposed to a good growth company. Go with the percentage you're comfortable with, whether it's 3 or 5 or 7.5%.

Emergency Measures Act in Canada. End goal is to choke off capital to the protestors. Unique test case for alternative financing via digital currencies. Will alternative avenues remain open? If yes, more regulations are in the cards, and it's another argument to ban them down the road.

Inflation. Has knocked markets back considerably. The Fed has done an abrupt u-turn on interest rate hikes and trimming the balance sheet. Caught the market off guard. Every day, the inflation numbers seem to get worse. Fed is under pressure to act. It probably put too much capital into the system, and now it has to reverse course.

Bright lights for investors. Three positives. GDP performance has been very strong in US and Canada. Unemployment has been strong for both countries. Reverse purchase agreements on the Fed balance sheet, used to prevent interest rates going below zero, could be unwound to easily trim the balance sheet.

CDRs on the NEO Exchange. Canadian Depository Receipts. Covers about 25 of the largest companies in the US. A way for Canadians to own US assets without the currency risk, as well as own fractional units. Over time, there will be more of them.